|AFL Preview: Round 18
Western Bulldogs v St Kilda
Saturday 7.25pm AEST
at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
|Best Bet: Western Bulldogs -20.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Under 170.5 points ($1.88)
St Kilda can prove a tricky match-up for good sides when they’re on, so the Dogs won’t take them lightly.
The Dogs have won six of their last seven, including the last three against Gold Coast, Richmond and Sydney, with a loss to Geelong their only downer in that period. Last week saw them top 100 points for only the second time since Round 8.
St Kilda have had more good weeks than bad in recent times, and have won four of their last five, against Carlton, Geelong, Essendon and Melbourne, with a loss to Gold Coast at Metricon the only time their effort could be questioned.
Stats That Matter
St Kilda have a 6-4 edge over the Dogs in their last ten meetings, but the Dogs have won four of the last five, including earlier this year by 57 points.
The Bulldogs have had more games go under the match score than any side this year. They are yet to lose as favourite this season, winning ten games as favourite.
St Kilda have won five matches as underdog this season, the most of any side. The Saints are +7% POT and 60% ATS at Etihad this season, as opposed to -59% POT and 50% ATS elsewhere.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
Where’s Lachie Hunter…. Oh there he is and WOW! $4.50 to have the most touches is something I’ll be having a piece of. He had 35 against the Saints in round two with 10 marks. Hunter loves a little kick to kick and at $6.50, he’s a red hot chance to win the mark category as well. Why not put all your eggs in one basket and back him in with Fantasy points as well. He had 130 against the Saints earlier this year and 110 last week. He’s at $3.75 to win that category as well. As you can see… I’m tipping that Lachie will have a very big day.
The Saints are up and running, and twice proved a tricky match-up for the Dogs last year, beating them once and going down by a goal in the other game. Their forward-line is functioning beautifully, and it could cause the Dogs some issues.
The problem for the Saints is going to be getting the ball in there enough. The Dogs are very hard to beat at clearances and stoppages, particularly by teams that don’t bat as deep as them through the midfield.
The Dogs should be able to control the ball, lock the game down, and generate enough of their own scoring opportunities to ensure victory. If the bad Saints turn up, it will be a sizeable margin, as it was earlier in the year.
How It’s Shaping Up
Western Bulldogs by 24 points
Western Bulldogs -20.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 170.5 points ($1.88)
The Wolf’s Round 18 AFL Tips
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