AFL Preview: Tigers v Bombers

AFL Preview Round 17 - Tigers v Bombers
AFL Preview: Round 17
Richmond v Essendon
Saturday 1.40pm AEST
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Richmond 1-39 ($2.20)
Other Bet: Essendon +34.5 ($1.91)

Essendon will give themselves a chance to record their second win of the year against a vulnerable Richmond.

Form

Richmond has lost two in a row, against Port and the Western Bulldogs, after winning five of their previous six against weaker opposition. They are yet to lose a game to the five teams currently below them on the ladder.

Essendon have lost 13 matches on end, but have been competitive in two of their last three, pushing GWS and up against St Kilda late in the final quarter last week. In between, they were bullied by West Coast in Perth, as many teams have been.

Stats That Matter

Richmond has won four in a row against Essendon including a comfortable 38 points victory seven weeks ago.

Richmond are the worst ranked side at covering the line this year, while Essendon are ranked equal second last. Richmond has only covered once in their last five matches, the Bombers twice in their last seven. The Tigers have only covered two of nine MCG games, the Dons have covered two of five.

Richmond is the only side yet to cover the line in a day game this season, having failed three times.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Richmond 4-11, Essendon 5-10
2016 Over/Under: Richmond 8-7, Essendon 9-6

Final Thoughts

Richmond put out their most youthful side of the season last week against the highly rated Bulldogs, and looked more energetic and free as a result, almost stealing victory but for some immaturity and errors.

If the Tigers produce that sort of run and carry, it should be enough to open the Bombers up, but if the Dons can force them into enough turnover, they could stay in the match long enough to spring a surprise.

Both of these sides have been hard to predict, and if Richmond are off and Essendon are on, an upset is on the cards.

How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 22 points

Best Bet
Richmond 1-39 ($2.20)

Other Recommended Bets
Essendon +34.5 ($1.91)

The Wolf’s Round 17 AFL Tips

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