AFL Preview: Swans v Hawks

AFL Preview Round 17 - Swans v Hawks
AFL Preview: Round 17
Sydney v Hawthorn
Thursday 7.20pm AEST
SCG, Sydney
Best Bet: Sydney -8.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Wire to Wire – Sydney (2.75)

This top of the table clash should produce an epic match of the round.

Form

Sydney have gone win-loss-win-loss-win over their last five matches, losing to a couple of fellow contenders in GWS and the Western Bulldogs, but beating Geelong last week in their most complete performance of the year.

Hawthorn have now won six in a row, not necessarily beating much in that time, but getting the job done, with last week’s win over Port in their top three games of the year. They’ve lost their last two matches against top six sides, Sydney in Round 9 and GWS in Round 6.

Stats That Matter

Hawthorn lead the Swans 6-4 in their last ten matches, none of which have been at the SCG. The away team has won the last three matches.

Sydney were only 38% ATS at the SCG across 2014-15, but are 83% ATS this year. They have won 9 of 10 night matches at the ground since the start of 2014, at +11% POT. They are ranked equal second in covering the line this year.

Hawthorn are ranked equal second last in covering the line this season. Since the start of 2014, the Hawks are -22% POT and 47% ATS when interstate as the away side. Hawthorn have lost three of their last four matches in New South Wales, only covering the line in the win.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets

Last time these teams met was in round nine and on that day, Tom Mitchell tagged Sam Mitchell to just 15 touches. This will happen again my friends so avoid Sam in all markets. Instead, hit up Dan Hannebery for most handballs paying $3. He won this category in round nine with 18 and also had 18 last week. Jordan Lewis ($8) is good value to lead all Fantasy points in this game as he attempts to score this seventh straight 100+ in as many weeks.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Sydney 10-5, Hawthorn 5-10
2016 Over/Under: Sydney 7-8, Hawthorn 7-8

Final Thoughts

Hawthorn are gradually working their way into something like their best form, but are yet to convince against top quality opposition and are due for a loss after six wins in a row, and are playing at a ground they haven’t been at since 2012.

Sydney have become the stingiest defensive side in the competition, and the Hawks are not the offensive beast they were in their premiership years. Nick Smith plays Cyril Rioli well, and Dane Rampe and Heath Grundy are in career best form. Gary Rohan may be employed back to quell the influence of Paul Puopolo.

The Swans should create enough opportunities thanks to an in-form midfield, and Lance Franklin shapes as the match-winner with Ted Richards likely to perform a defensive forward role on Josh Gibson.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 17 points

Best Bet
Sydney -8.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Wire to Wire – Sydney (2.75)

The Wolf’s Round 17 AFL Tips

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