|AFL Preview: Round 17
St Kilda v Melbourne
Sunday 3.20pm AEST
Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
|Best Bet: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($1.80)
Other Bet: St Kilda WIN ($2.10)
These two sides measure themselves against each other, but the Saints are on a long winning run against the Demons.
St Kilda have won three of their last four, upsetting Carlton and Geelong before falling to Gold Coast up at Metricon. They struggled for the longest time to put Essendon away last week, but eventually did so thanks to a flurry of late goals.
Every Melbourne match since Round 7 has gone according to their current ladder position, suggesting the Demons are exactly where they should be. The last team they lost to that is below them was actually St Kilda.
Stats That Matter
St Kilda have won their last 13 matches against Melbourne, including their Round 6 clash earlier this year. Three of their last four matches have been at Etihad, where the Saints have won by 39, 2 and 17 points.
Melbourne has played 11 matches at Etihad Stadium in the last five years, for one win at -79% POT and 36% ATS. The Demons have one win in seven matches there under Paul Roos. Four of these losses have been at $2.25 or less.
In the last four matches between the sides, Melbourne have started at $1.65, $1.93, $2.25 and $1.45, but failed to win.
2016 Line: St Kilda 8-7, Melbourne 10-5
2016 Over/Under: St Kilda 7-8, Melbourne 6-9
Melbourne and St Kilda finished alongside each other in 13th and 14th on the ladder last year, half a game and one percent separating them. This year they have the same amount of wins, albeit the Demons have a decisive percentage advantage.
The Saints have had a couple of down weeks, and the Demons have been up, even though they both have a win and a loss for their efforts over the last fortnight. If they hold that form, Melbourne should be able to win, but how heavy does history weigh on the minds of their players, both against St Kilda and at Etihad.
In a match too tough to predict, the Saints simply must be value at their quote given what we know about the past.
How It’s Shaping Up
St Kilda by 8 points
Other Recommended Bets
St Kilda WIN ($2.10)
The Wolf’s Round 17 AFL Tips
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