AFL Preview: Lions v Giants

AFL Preview Round 17 - Lions v Giants
AFL Preview: Round 17
Brisbane v Greater Western Sydney
Sunday 4.40pm AEST
Gabba, Brisbane
Best Bet: 1st Quarter GWS -12.5 ($1.87)
Other Bet: 4th Quarter GWS -14.5 ($1.87)

GWS should bounce back from an unexpected loss with an easy kill.

Brisbane have lost 11 in a row since their Round 4 defeat of Gold Coast. They haven’t been disgraced in their last three losses to the Suns, Richmond and West Coast, but they haven’t had much to write home about either.

GWS is coming off a shock loss to Collingwood, where they simply got ahead of themselves after taking a four goal lead into quarter time. Prior to that was three wins in a row against Sydney, Essendon and Carlton.

Stats That Matter

Brisbane and GWS have met four times for a 2-2 results. GWS have won the last two matches by an average of 38 points.

Brisbane are 33% ATS in 2016, which lifts to 43% ATS at the Gabba. Every match at the Gabba this year has gone over the total match points.

In 2016, GWS are +12% POT and 50% ATS when interstate. Across 2013-15 interstate, they were -60% POT and 46% ATS. Last week was the first time in GWS history they lost starting at $1.30 or less.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Brisbane 5-10, GWS 9-6
2016 Over/Under: Brisbane 10-5, GWS 8-7

Final Thoughts

The last time GWS suffered a shock loss was to Melbourne in Round 1, under similar circumstances to how they dropped the Collingwood game last week – comfortably up at a break (three-quarter time in Round 1, quarter time last round) and thinking the win would just happen. As they have learned again, it still takes the required work.

If they bring these lessons to the Gabba, Brisbane don’t stand a chance, and it may well get ugly in the doing. If any rain comes, it may keep the scoring in check, and it’s hard to be confident on much in case the weather does become inclement.

How It’s Shaping Up
GWS by 50 points

Best Bet
1st Quarter GWS -12.5 ($1.87)

Other Recommended Bets
4th Quarter GWS -14.5 ($1.87)

The Wolf’s Round 17 AFL Tips

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