|AFL Preview: Round 17
Fremantle v Geelong
Friday 8.10pm AEST
Domain Stadium, Perth
|Best Bet: Geelong -30.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Team Total Geelong 106-120 ($5.00)
Fremantle should sniff an upset against a suddenly out-of-sorts Geelong.
Fremantle have lost their way since winning three in a row in June, losing their last two in deplorable fashion to Collingwood by 48 and Melbourne by 32, both of which felt like double the margin that it ended up being.
Geelong aren’t faring much better, having also lost two in a row in poor fashion for a team that has premiership ambitions. The Cats didn’t handle the bye period well, losing to St Kilda before it, and Sydney after it.
Stats That Matter
Fremantle has won six of their last ten against Geelong. Four of these matches have been at Domain Stadium, with the Dockers winning three. The Cats last beat them there in 2011.
Fremantle are -63% POT this year, and -46% POT at Domain. Five out of their seven matches at their home ground have gone under, aligned with 71% at the under there since the start of last season.
Geelong has lost five times as favourite this year, the most of any side. They are 6 from 13 interstate in the last three years, at -14% POT and 38% ATS. They are 69% at the under interstate in this time, the highest percentage of any travelling side.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
Michael Barlow is set to tag Patrick Dangerfield tonight and I’m not at all concerned. Dangerfield ($2.70) is at tempting odds to find the most the ball in group A and $1.95 to have the most AFL Fantasy points. He had 147 on the Dockers last year and will potentially have more tonight. Last week against Fremantle, five Melbourne players had 30+ touches, so surely Joel Selwood ($2.10) can get the job done. Mitch Duncan ($4) is also value in this field and will run as my ‘roughie of the night’.
It’s all about good Geelong and bad Geelong these days, the Dr Jeckyll and Mr Hyde of the competition.
Losses to the likes of Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda spoke to a mental fragility, but the loss last week to the Swans saw them shown up for toughness and run, where they severely lacked in both. The bottom may have fallen out of the Dockers, so the Cats get to regain some confidence, and a trip away may be just the tonic.
Geelong have fallen in and out of form with no notice this year, but if they find it again, they will win and win well.
How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 42 points
Geelong -30.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Team Total Geelong 106-120 ($5.00)
The Wolf’s Round 17 AFL Tips
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