|AFL Preview: Round 17
Adelaide v Collingwood
Saturday 7.40pm AEST
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
|Best Bet: Adelaide 1-39 ($2.35)
Other Bet: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.60)
The second biggest match of the round as it turns out, with both sides on winning runs.
Adelaide are on a seven game winning streak, undefeated since Round 8. Significant victims have been GWS, West Coast in Perth, North, and Melbourne at the MCG. They’ve scored over 100 in each of these wins.
Collingwood have won three in a row since their bye, as they’ve welcomed back some senior players. They dominated Fremantle from the outset in Round 14, won ugly against Carlton in Round 15, and then trounced GWS after quarter time last week.
Stats That Matter
Adelaide have won the last three matches between the sides, which followed Collingwood winning six in a row. They have played one match at Adelaide Oval for a Crows victory.
Adelaide are the number one ranked side at covering the line this year. They are six wins from seven games at Adelaide Oval, and have covered the line in five matches.
Since the start of 2012, Collingwood is +10% POT interstate, which is the third best result in the league. They are 56% ATS (ranked third) and 72% (ranked first) at the under in this time. Since the start of 2014, the Pies are +46% POT and 67% ATS interstate.
2016 Line: Adelaide 11-4, Collingwood 7-8
2016 Over/Under: Adelaide 9-6, Collingwood 6-9
Adelaide are the undisputed form side of the competition, but Collingwood loom as a danger side for any finals bound team in the run to September.
The Pies have their run and pressure game back, and with Travis Cloke back in form they have a much more potent forward-line that can capitalize on their opportunities. Adelaide are running hot, but they can’t afford to let up here, lest they have the loss they are probably due for.
The Crows have made an art-form of opening up their forward-line and strolling into easy goals, which has been a weakness of the Pies at times this year. Adelaide should still win, but it might be closer than some think.
How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 11 points
Adelaide 1-39 ($2.35)
Other Recommended Bets
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.60)
The Wolf’s Round 17 AFL Tips
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