|AFL Preview: Round 17
Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast
Saturday 7.25pm AEST
Cazaly’s Stadium, Cairns
|Best Bet: Bulldogs -37.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Under 162.5 points ($1.90)
The Bulldogs will start short, but Cairns can be a tricky place to play.
The Dogs have won five of their last six, but their last four wins have been by a combined 25 points, interspersed with a 57 point loss to Geelong. Beating Sydney at the SCG two weeks ago was the highlight, but their win over Richmond last round was error-riddled.
Gold Coast have been in strong form for a month now, with fighting losses to Hawthorn and Richmond away from home followed by two wins back at their favoured Metricon Stadium, against St Kilda and Brisbane.
Stats That Matter
The Bulldogs have won the last two matches between the sides, both played at this ground. Gold Coast had won the previous two games, but they were at Metricon.
The Bulldogs are ranked #1 for under the total match score this year, Gold Coast are ranked #1 for over.
The Dogs have won four from nine interstate matches under Luke Beveridge, at +40% POT, ranked fourth for interstate POT in this time. They have only started favourite twice interstate under him, winning one at $1.65 but losing the other at $1.22.
The Suns have not won as underdog since Round 2 this year.
What looked like an easy snack for the Dogs a month ago did shape as a danger game, particularly at a ground that is known for producing tough conditions and scrappy football, but with Gary Ablett and Michael Rischitelli to miss the rest of the season through injury, the Suns are going to struggle to compete at the contest.
The Dogs will pressure what midfielders Gold Coast do have left, forcing them into turnover and not letting them feed enough supply to the in-form twin towers of Tom Lynch and Peter Wright. The Dogs will be looking to score more in the run home, and will try to start here if they get the conditions to suit.
How It’s Shaping Up
Western Bulldogs by 42 points
Bulldogs -37.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 162.5 points ($1.90)
The Wolf’s Round 17 AFL Tips
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