| AFL Preview: Round 17 Carlton v West Coast Sunday 1.10pm AEST MCG, Melbourne |
Best Bet: West Coast -32.5 ($1.91) Other Bet: Under 172.5 ($1.90) |
West Coast needs to win this sort of match untroubled in order to stake their top four claims.
Form
Carlton has now lost four in a row after promising early and mid-season form. They’ve lost to St Kilda, GWS, Collingwood and Adelaide, and have only been able to average 59 points per game in this time.
West Coast have won three in a row since their loss to the Crows in Adelaide in Round 12, beating Brisbane at the Gabba, and then Essendon and North in Perth since their bye as they start to find better form.
Stats That Matter
Carlton has won six of the last ten matches between the sides, but the Eagles have won four of the last six. They have not met at the MCG in the last ten years.
The Blues have played five MCG matches against non-Victorian sides in the last four years, winning three at +39% POT and 80% ATS. They have failed to cover the line in their last four matches.
West Coast have played ten games at the MCG since the start of 2012, winning three at -60% POT, but 60% ATS. 80% of these matches have gone under the total match points. Adam Simpson’s coaching record at the ground is two wins from five matches.
Betting Data
2016 Line: Carlton 8-7, West Coast 9-6
2016 Over/Under: Carlton 6-9, West Coast 6-9
Final Thoughts
West Coast have won two of their last three away from home, and will need to continue doing so to dispel the flat-track bully reputation they have. Carlton are in a rut and perfect for the taking from an Eagles desperate to continue their rise up the ladder.
The Blues are struggling badly to find avenues to goal. Levi Casboult is out suspended, but had been playing poorly anyway. West Coast has multiple forward options, and they shouldn’t have too much trouble kicking a winning score against a team struggling through the depths of winter.
How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 45 points
Best Bet
West Coast -32.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 172.5 ($1.90)
The Wolf’s Round 17 AFL Tips
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