|AFL Preview: Round 16
Gold Coast v Brisbane
Saturday 4.35pm AEST
Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast
|Best Bet: Gold Coast 1-39 ($2.30)
Other Bet: Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.65)
The second Q-Clash of the year gives Gold Coast a chance to exact revenge for their earlier loss.
Gold Coast broke a ten game losing sequence last week against St Kilda, who themselves had been in form. Prior to the win over the Saints, the Suns had played well against Richmond and Hawthorn on the road.
Brisbane have now lost ten in a row, with no real signs that the next win is any closer. Some of their most recent losses, to Richmond, Fremantle and Carlton, have been against teams that occupy lower rungs on the ladder themselves, and those losses have been comfortable.
Stats That Matter
Brisbane have won seven of the last ten Q-Clashes, but Gold Coast have won two of the last three. The Suns have also won the last two played at Metricon. Five of the last seven matches between the teams have gone over the total match points.
Gold Coast are -46% POT, 39% ATS and 36% under total match points under Rodney Eade, but are -33% POT, 44% ATS and 44% at the under at their home ground.
Brisbane have started $4.50 or greater more than any other team in the last three years. They have four wins from 29 under those circumstances, at -29% POT and 38% ATS. They have lost all eight games this season starting at >$4.50 covering the line three times.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
In the Marcus Ashcroft Medal for the best player on the ground there is always great value. Tom Lynch ($7) should kick a big bag for the Suns and if you like value, look no further than Pearce Hanley ($14). He has torn this Q Clash game apart in recent times and is juicy odds at $4 to find the ball over 30 times. In his last four games against them he has racked up 28, 31, 45 and 30 touches.
Gold Coast have hit some sort of form after months in the darkness, while Brisbane are yet to find their way into the light.
The Suns have the wood over the Lions in key position players at either end, and the class of Gary Ablett in the middle, supported by Rischitelli, Prestia and Hall are proving more effective in recent weeks than the Brisbane midfield.
Brisbane are struggling to find effective ways to score, while Tom Lynch looms as a large presence in the game for the Suns, and should prove a match-winning one, but you couldn’t be leaping at $1.18 for a side that won once in three months.
How It’s Shaping Up
Gold Coast by 21 points
Gold Coast 1-39 ($2.30)
Other Recommended Bets
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($2.65)
The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips
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