|AFL Preview: Round 16
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn
Thursday 7.50pm AEST
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
|Best Bet: Port Adelaide WIN ($2.45)
Other Bet: Port Adelaide 40+ ($8.50)
Can the Hawks maintain top spot against a side that beat them twice last year?
Port’s form has been quite consistent over the last six matches, a time in which they’ve beaten Melbourne, Collingwood and Richmond convincingly, as well as pushing top eight sides West Coast and the Western Bulldogs. The outlier in that group a loss to Fremantle pre-bye.
Hawthorn has won five in a row, dispensing with minnows like Brisbane, Essendon and Gold Coast, along with tougher wins over Melbourne and North Melbourne. Their best performance remains all the way back in round two against West Coast.
Stats That Matter
Hawthorn have won six of the last 10 games between the sides, but Port won both matches last year and have won three of the last four. They two sides have met twice at Adelaide Oval for two Power victories.
Port are -39% POT at the venue this year, having won only four from eight, and are -11% POT overall there. Against Victorian sides, the Power are 14 from 19 and +4% POT and 63% ATS at Adelaide Oval.
Since the start of 2014 and discounting their home base in Tasmania, Hawthorn has won 50% of their interstate matches at -29% POT and 43% ATS. 79% of these matches have gone over the total match points.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
Beware of the taggers! If Port employ the same tactics as they did against the Tigers, then expect Brad Ebert and Kane Mitchell to tag Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell. This will allow Ollie Wines to go straight to the top of my best bets tonight. He’s paying $10 to have the most touches and $5.50 for most tackles. Wines is in so good form too, and even had 27 touches and 9 tackles last week. You can also get him at $3.50 to have 30+, which in my eyes is amazing value. So, grab a frothy or a nice red ‘Wines’ and enjoy this big game from Adelaide Oval while the money pours in.
Port come into this game with confidence knowing they have a good recent record against Hawthorn overall, but particularly at the Adelaide Oval.
The Power are strong at winning contested possession through the likes of Robbie Gray, Travis Boak, Ollie Wines and Brad Ebert, all of whom are in good form, while this has been a clear weakness of the Hawks throughout 2016.
Port are capable of kicking quick unanswered goals, especially at home, and have done this in the past to beat Hawthorn, and again, conceding these types of scores has has been a weakness of the Hawks all season.
Port’s odds are too good to resist.
How It’s Shaping Up
Port by 15 points
Port Adelaide WIN ($2.45)
Other Recommended Bets
Port Adelaide 40+ ($8.50)
The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips
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