AFL Preview: Giants v Magpies

AFL Preview Round 16 - Giants v Magpies
AFL Preview: Round 16
Greater Western Sydney v Collingwood
Saturday 1.40pm AEST
Spotless Stadium, Sydney
Best Bet: GWS 1-39 ($2.65)
Other Bet: Collingwood +47.5 ($1.91)

Collingwood have hit some form, but are up against it travelling to take on GWS.


GWS have won three in a row, the most impressive of them being over Sydney in Round 12, with the others coming as expected against Essendon and Carlton. Prior to that was losses travelling to Adelaide and Geelong where they weren’t disgraced.

Collingwood have put together two wins in a row over Carlton and Fremantle, which followed losses to Melbourne, Port and the Western Bulldogs. A Round 9 victory over Geelong aside, all season they have come up short against the best teams.

Stats That Matter

Collingwood and GWS have only met four times, with the Pies winning all of them.

GWS have won all five games at Spotless Stadium this season, covering the line each time. They are 77% ATS there since the start of last season, winning 11 of 13 at +39% POT. Five of their last seven matches at the ground have gone over the total match points.

Collingwood under Nathan Buckley are -15% POT and 54% ATS interstate, with 75% of those matches going under total match points. They are -24% POT but 63% ATS interstate since the start of last year.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets
Heath Shaw against his old club, at home, has the making of something nasty. He’s paying $2.50 to have the most marks. Last time he played, he was tagged to just one mark by Carlton and prior to that he was averaging 12 marks a game at home this year. Shaw isn’t usually available in this market so enjoy it while it lasts.  I’m tipping GWS to absolutely dominate this game Stephen Coniglio ($4.50) to continue his form where he has found the ball 31 and 29 times in his last two games to lead all disposals on Saturday afternoon.

Betting Data
2016 Line: GWS 9-5, Collingwood 6-8
2016 Over/Under: GWS 7-7, Collingwood 5-9

Final Thoughts

Collingwood’s injury list appears to be shrinking, which gives them a chance to find continuity and their best football in the home stretch of the season, but taking down GWS looks a bridge too far, especially given the Giants have quietly turned Spotless into a fortress.

The Pies only have half a dozen players to average 19 or most disposals per game this year, with these six kicking 34 goals between them. GWS has 11 players averaging 19 touches or more, with 126 goals between them. Collingwood simply can’t match their spread of contributors through the middle or forward of centre.

The Pies have found some form and can be competitive, but GWS won’t be dropping this one.

How It’s Shaping Up
GWS by 28 points

Best Bet
GWS 1-39 ($2.65)

Other Recommended Bets
Collingwood +47.5 ($1.91)

The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips

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