|AFL Preview: Round 16
West Coast v North Melbourne
Sunday 3.20pm AEST
Domain Stadium, Perth
|Best Bet: West Coast -19.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Over 177.5 points ($1.88)
The loser of this match is effectively consigned to missing out on a top four finish.
West Coast have played to type of their last five matches, beating the bad teams (Gold Coast, Brisbane, Essendon) but losing to the good ones (Western Bulldogs and Adelaide). They are getting closer to consistent football.
North Melbourne are in the midst of a tough draw, having lost four of their last five, with all of those losses against current top five sides – Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide. They’ve been far from poor in the run though, but might just be a cut below the best teams.
Stats That Matter
West Coast leads 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Six of these have been at Domain Stadium, with North winning one of them.
The Eagles have 18 wins from their last 20 matches at Domain Stadium, and have covered the line in all of those wins, failing to do so in the two losses. They haven’t lost there when starting $1.40 or under since Round 10, 2013.
Discounting their second home in Tasmania, North are 9 wins from 18 interstate games since the start of 2014, at -1% POT and 50% ATS. Two of those wins have come at Domain. Their last six matches at Domain have gone the under.
If the Eagles are going to be a serious player this season, it has to start now by claiming the scalp of a fellow top eight rival for the first time this year. They are at home against a team that has been struggling to match it with the best as they battle injuries and form.
North do play the ground well enough though, and player-for-player match-up soundly against the Eagles across the ground, but West Coast’s record at home is too strong to resist, particularly given they cover the line every time they win, which makes this particular points spread very attainable.
Todd Goldstein, if he’s no longer carrying an injury, is the player that could win North the game with no Nic Naitanui in the opposition.
How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 30 points
West Coast -19.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 177.5 points ($1.88)
The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips
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