AFL Preview: Demons v Dockers

AFL Preview Round 16 - Demons v Dockers
AFL Preview: Round 16
Melbourne v Fremantle
Saturday 7.40pm AEST
TIO Stadium, Darwin
Best Bet: Fremantle +17.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Fremantle WIN ($3.05)
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($1.95)

Melbourne played well without winning last week, but get a chance to reward their efforts against Fremantle.

Form
Melbourne has produced a mixed bag in recent weeks, pushing top sides like Hawthorn and Adelaide, comfortably beating Collingwood, or offering meek resistance to Port and Sydney. Ultimately, they’ve only won one of their last five.

Fremantle put in arguably the worst pre-bye performance in the competition in Round 14, when going down to Collingwood by 48 points in a spiritless display. Prior to that they had put together wins over Port, Brisbane and Essendon.

Stats That Matter

Fremantle have won the last seven matches between the sides, including their only meeting at this ground in 2014 when the Dockers won by 61 points. Hayden Ballantyne has been the leading goal-kicker (or equal leading) on the ground in five of the last ten meetings.

Melbourne are no wins from seven attempts in the Northern Territory over the last five years, and have only covered the line twice in that time.

Fremantle are 6-8 ATS this year, but 6-3 in their last nine. They are -10% POT interstate under Ross Lyon, which actually ranks 5th in the league in that time. They are 60% at the under when interstate since 2013.

DT Talk Player Prop Bets

AFL DreamTeam Talk Bets
Max Gawn ($4) scored 125 Fantasy points against Freo last year, and that was against Sandilands. He has averaged 126 in his last three games and is up against a rabble of a ruck department. Fear the beard, expect 130+. Lachie Neale had 34 touches on the Demons last year and is paying just over double your money to win the possession market again. Michael Walters ($5) is good value in group B with Michael Barlow on the sidelines. He should get more midfield time and therefore more ball. Walters had 26 in round 8 when Barlow missed and even clocked up 28 last week. In group B he doesn’t have much competition and should get the job done at good value.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Melbourne 9-5, Fremantle 6-8
2016 Over/Under: Melbourne 6-8, Fremantle 5-9

Final Thoughts

Melbourne have played by far the better football of the two teams in 2016, but have still had their moments of inconsistency. They have played a more attacking brand, which has troubled Fremantle when they’ve come across that style all season.

But the Demons just can’t win in the Northern Territory, either in Alice Springs or Darwin, and they have played some particularly poor football there over the years. It doesn’t inspire confidence in taking short odds.

If the Dockers respond well to the bye and Melbourne is a bit off, which are entirely possible scenarios, Freo looks the value.

How It’s Shaping Up
Fremantle by 12 points

Best Bet
Fremantle +17.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Fremantle WIN ($3.05)
Wire to Wire – Any Other Result ($1.95)

The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips

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