|AFL Preview: Round 16
Geelong v Sydney
Friday 7.50pm AEST
Simonds Stadium, Geelong
|Best Bet: Geelong 1-39 ($2.20)
Other Bet: Both Teams to Score 70 points – Yes ($1.70)
Huge are the stakes here, when the loser is a good chance to drop to seventh by rounds end.
Geelong is coming of a shock loss to St Kilda, the third time in six matches they have lost to bottom sides starting as prohibitive favourites ($1.17 or less on each occasion). In between times, they recorded strong wins over GWS, North and the Western Bulldogs.
Sydney is coming off a loss of their own, unable to defy the Western Bulldogs for the full 120 minutes last week. Prior to that they had beaten Melbourne but lost to GWS, so their form is starting to look less than stellar.
Stats That Matter
Geelong leads Sydney 6-4 in their last ten meetings. Six of their last seven matches have gone the way of the home side. Sydney last won at Simonds Stadium in 2011.
The Cats have won all four games at Simonds this season (+28% POT, 75% ATS, 75% over) after losing three of eight there last year. They have now won eight in a row at the ground, covering the line in six of them.
Since the start of 2015, Sydney are 11 wins from 17 interstate, at -3% POT, 53% ATS and 71% at the under, but their record in Victoria is 6 wins from 8 matches, at +21% POT, 75% ATS and 75% at the under.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
Big Friday night blockbuster and with so many stars from each team available, it makes it very hard to separate them in the markets. Mitch Duncan ($4.25) is value in group B for most touches but you can’t look past the value of Joel Selwood ($7.50) to lay the most tackles. He also had 35 touches last year against the Swans and will double your money if he can find the pill 30+ times.
Even though Geelong have proven flaky against weaker opposition this year, they know how to get up for a game against a fellow contender, having won five on end against their fellow top eight rivals. Sydney will be smarting after a home loss to the Dogs, but travelling to Simonds Stadium is never easy.
The midfield battle will be star-laden, with Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan in the blue corner, with support from Guthrie, Bartel, Motlop and Blicavs, while in the red corner we’ll see Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy with help from Mitchell, McVeigh, Jack and Lloyd.
Buddy can win or lose games of his own boot up one end, but needs more support now with Tippett out of the side, while the Cats get a more even contribution from Hawkins, Kersten, Menzel and the midfielders.
The Swans aren’t without a show, but the safe bet is to stick with Geelong.
How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 17 points
Geelong 1-39 ($2.20)
Other Recommended Bets
Both Teams to Score 70 points – Yes ($1.70)
The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips
If you are a stats guru don’t forget to check out our AFL betting database complete with historical data and stats.