|AFL Preview: Round 16
Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Saturday 7.25pm AEST
Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
|Best Bet: Under 173.5 points ($1.85)
Other Bet: Western Bulldogs -29.5 ($1.91)
Richmond looks like easy pickings for a Western Bulldogs coming off their best win of the season.
The Bulldogs are in the thick of the premiership race thanks to last week’s win over Sydney at the SCG. Prior to their bye, they had lost to Geelong when they looked tired and sore after tough wins over Port, West Coast and Collingwood.
Richmond had been clawing out wins over lesser sides like Essendon, Gold Coast and Brisbane, but the truth lays with big losses to North Melbourne and Port Adelaide. The Tigers are a long way off their finals pace of previous seasons.
Stats That Matter
The Bulldogs have won six of the last nine between the teams, and have won four of the six played at Etihad. Jack Riewoldt has been the leading goal-kicker on the ground in four of their last five matches.
Richmond has the worst record at the line in the league this season, while the Dogs have the second best. The Tigers haven’t covered in their last four matches, while the Dogs have covered in four of their last five.
The Tigers are 29% ATS at Etihad since the start of 2014, while the Dogs are 58% ATS and +21% POT at the venue in that time. Richmond has played seven matches there, while the Dogs have played 36.
DT Talk Player Prop Bets
115, 152, 102, 115 and 105 are Matthew Boyd’s last Fantasy scores against the Tigers and he’s paying $6.50 to lead all scorers this week. He’s coming off an impressive 129 against the Swans and to win this, he’ll need plenty of marks ($3.75) which he’ll get under the Etihad roof. Lachie Hunter ($3.25) won’t be touched in the disposal field as he continues his hot run this year. He has averaged 33 possessions in his last five under the roof and will be very tough to stop again.
There is no way this ends well for the Tigers. Apart from the outlier which was their win over Sydney, their other results against the current top ten sides have been seven losses by an average of 47 points, and most of those margins were flattering.
Richmond struggles to move the ball fluently and are prone to skill errors at inopportune times, both of which play perfectly into Bulldogs hands with their strangling style of play. The Tigers will struggle to score, and the Dogs should find it easy enough on the rebound.
The only doubt surrounding the Dogs might be coming back off the emotional high of the win over Sydney, but they should be too professional a unit to let this one go.
How It’s Shaping Up
Western Bulldogs by 49 points
Under 173.5 points ($1.85)
Other Recommended Bets
Western Bulldogs -29.5 ($1.91)
The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips
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