AFL Preview: Bombers v Saints

AFL Preview Round 16 - Bombers v Saints
AFL Preview: Round 16
Essendon v St Kilda
Sunday 4.40pm AEST
Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
Best Bet: St Kilda -40.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Josh Bruce – most goals

Whatever the opposite of match of the round is, this is it.

Essendon hasn’t won since Round 2, and the last month has been tough. Apart from a lively performance against GWS who didn’t turn up, the Bombers have lost to Fremantle, Hawthorn and West Coast by 79, 108 and 78 points respectively.

St Kilda have mixed their form, as young sides are prone to do. The big win over Geelong couldn’t be backed up against Gold Coast last week. Even before their bye, they had beaten Carlton convincingly, but lost to Adelaide by 88 points.

Stats That Matter

Essendon lead 6-4 in the last ten matches, but St Kilda have won the last two, including earlier this year by 46 points. Josh Bruce has kicked the most goals in each of their last three matches, kicking five each time.

Essendon are 50% ATS at Etihad this season, as opposed to 29% ATS in all matches. They have the second worst record at the line of all teams this year, and have only covered once in their last six matches.

St Kilda are -30% POT, 57% ATS and 57% at the under in all matches this season, but are -8% POT, 63% ATS and 50% at the under at Etihad. In all matches at Etihad under Alan Richardson, the Saints are +21% POT and 55% ATS.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Essendon 4-10, St Kilda 8-6
2016 Over/Under: Essendon 8-6, St Kilda 6-8

Final Thoughts

Six of St Kilda’s seven wins this year have been by 29 points or more, suggesting that when they play well, they can put a side away, particularly those rated around or lower to them. They can be hard to catch, but generally respond well to a bad showing the week before.

You don’t go broke backing against Essendon at the line this season, and the Saints should be stung into action off arguably their most disappointing performance of the year.

They beat the Dons by 46 points at this ground only seven weeks ago, and didn’t play particularly well, and have had three good wins since then. We can expect a bigger result this time.

How It’s Shaping Up
St Kilda by 56 points

Best Bet
St Kilda -40.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Josh Bruce – most goals

The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips

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