AFL Preview: Blues v Crows

AFL Preview Round 16 - Blues v Crows
AFL Preview: Round 16
Carlton v Adelaide
Sunday 1.10pm AEST
MCG, Melbourne
Best Bet: Adelaide -33.5 ($1.91)
Other Bet: Qtr by Qtr – Carl/Adel/Adel/Adel ($7.00)

The gloss has come off Carlton in recent weeks, while the Crows are flying high with six wins in a row.

Form
The gloss has come off Carlton in recent weeks, with three consecutive losses to Collingwood, GWS and St Kilda, failing to cover the line in any of them. Prior to that, they had won six out of seven as the feelgood story of the year.

Adelaide are rocking to the tune of six wins in a row, with big scalps like GWS, West Coast in Perth and North Melbourne, as well as easier fare like Gold Coast at Metricon, St Kilda, and Melbourne at the MCG which wasn’t handed to them.

Stats That Matter

Adelaide and Carlton have only met once a year in the last six seasons, with the Blues leading 4-2. Their last three meetings were at the MCG, with Carlton holding a 2-1 advantage.

The Crows have the fourth worst POT at the MCG over the last five years, at -56%, also being 38% ATS there and 77% at the over. Their last six games at the MCG have gone over. Adelaide has the best record at the line this year of any team.

Carlton have failed to cover the line at their last three outings, after covering it at seven of their previous eight matches. They have provided the two biggest upsets of the season, winning at $6 and $8 in Round’s 5 and 10 respectively.

Betting Data
2016 Line: Carlton 8-6, Adelaide 10-4
2016 Over/Under: Carlton 6-8, Adelaide 9-5

Final Thoughts

Adelaide took a lot longer than expected to shake off a gallant Melbourne last week, and are now back at the MCG again, where they do struggle to play their best football, particularly from a defensive viewpoint.

The Crows should have too much run for a Carlton side that has lacked in that area, and the Blues defence looks vulnerable against the forward weapons of Adelaide.

Adelaide’s defenders can be beaten in one-on-one situations, which troubles them at the bigger MCG where they struggle to implement their zone defence, but the Blues don’t have the talent forward of centre to capitalize.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 50 points

Best Bet
Adelaide -33.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Qtr by Qtr – Carl/Adel/Adel/Adel ($7.00)

The Wolf’s Round 16 AFL Tips

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