AFL Preview Round 9: Lions v Hawks

Footy heads to the Gabba for the 3rd week in a row, with the Lions taking on the Hawks on Sunday afternoon. The Lions are now the only team without a win in 2018, although it has not been through lack of trying- Chris Fagan will certainly be proud of the energy and enthusiasm his cubs play with. Hawthorn, though, are full of battle-hardened veterans and will be ready for what is to come at the Gabba. If their recent meetings are anything to go by, the Lions won’t get anywhere near the Hawks….but footy is a funny game sometimes.

Form

Brisbane (LLLLL) – They certainly don’t look like a side that hasn’t won a game, but the fact remains that the Lions are 0-8 and now face games against two of the biggest clubs in the modern era; Hawthorn and Sydney. Dayne Zorko looks to have finally figured out how to break a tag- and his leadership, along with that of Dayne Beams, Stefan Martin and young star Charlie Cameron will be crucial in the coming fortnight. Speaking of Cameron; recruit of the year- absolutely flying!

Hawthorn (WLWWL) – If only Alastair Clarkson put as much energy into jump-starting his midfield as he did into questioning umpires. It wasn’t a pretty game last Friday night, but the fact remains when Smith (16 disposals) and Mitchell (20 disposals) are well held, the midfield lacks a fair bit of quality depth. Certainly not too much to be unhappy about for Hawks supporters though, with Sicily continuing his rise towards an All-Australia jumper in the backline and Jack Gunston doing what he does best- flying under the radar and scoring goals.

Stats That Matter
– Hawthorn are 1-4 on the Over/Under in their last 5 matches
– Brisbane have not beaten Hawthorn since 2009
– In the past 8 meetings, Hawthorn’s average winning margin is 55 points
– Stefan Martin is averaging 109 Fantasy points a game in 2018
– The Lions are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 matches at home
– Tom Mitchell has had 30+ disposals just once in his last 5 games

Betting Data

2018 Line: Brisbane- 4-4; Hawthorn- 5-3

2018 Over-Under: Brisbane- 3-5; Hawthorn- 3-5

What To Expect

The Wolf is of the opinion that the market has overrated the Lions past few games, and is happy to snap up the generous offer of a line set at -16.5. All of Brisbane’s ‘honourable’ losses have come against sides that are either inexperienced, out of form, or ravaged by injury- or a combination of the three; and the Wolf thinks this means there is plenty of value to be had. The Lions have struggled in particular against strong outside runners this year, and after a disappointing game last week, Wolfie thinks Isaac Smith will lead the charge and help the Hawks kick away from the Lions after an intial arm wrestle.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 28

Pump It Up Price Special: Mitchell/Zorko combine for 60+ Disposals & 2+ Goals & Hawks Win 25+ ($6.50)

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Hawthorn -16.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: Hawthorn 20-39 ($3.50)
Player Prop: Isaac Smith 25+ Disposals ($2.20)
First Goalscorer: Luke Breust

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