|Nth Melbourne v GWS
Sat 1:45pm at Blundstone Arena
|Best Bet: North Melbourne WIN ($1.70)
Value Bet: North Melbourne WIN and UNDER 159.5 ($4.20)
Player Prop: Ben Brown 4+ Goals ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: Mason Wood ($21.00)
Footy heads back down to wintery Tassie, with the Kangas taking on the Giants down in Hobart in what is expected to be blustery conditions on Saturday. The Giants come off two very ordinary performances over the past fortnight, and Leon Cameron will be wanting a big response from his side who have been absolutely butchering the ball of late. They won’t find it easy against a rugged North Melbourne side that thrives in the clinches, and loves playing down in Hobart.
North Melbourne (WWLWL) – The Kangaroos have finally slid out of the Top 8 after an agonising 10 point loss to the defending Premiers last Sunday- a game they should have won. The sight of the competition’s best set shot (Ben Brown) stiffer than Prince Harry on his honeymoon and missing a couple of absolute sitters with the game on the line highlights the difference they can’t quite make up against the top sides. That gap is flawless skill execution under extreme pressure- despite all their enthusiasm and effort.
GWS (WDWLL) – The Giants are officially in a rut- so much so they now sit outside the 8 despite being 3rd just 2 rounds ago. Yes, the Giants have been decimated by injury- but so have lots of other clubs. The most worrying aspect for Leon Cameron has been the pathetic skill level of what is considered to be a Rolls Royce side- they are going at just 64% disposal efficiency over the past fortnight- easily the worst in the AFL.
Stats That Matter
– Both sides have had 5 consecutives games go Unders
– GWS have not covered the spread since Round 1
– The Kangaroos are 4-1 ATS at home this season
– Stephen Coniglio has had 110+ Fantasy points in 6 of his 8 games
– North Melbourne have won 8 of their last 10 games at Blundstone Arena
– Ben Brown is averaging 3.3 goals a game in 2018
2018 Line: North Melbourne- 5-3; GWS- 1-7
2018 Over-Under: North Melbourne- 1-7; GWS- 2-6
What To Expect
The Wolf, like many others, has been shocked by the sharp decline in the Giants over the past month. Injuries have hurt, but the Eagles, Cats and Crows have all had injury worries and have still managed to sit 2nd, 3rd and 4th on the ladder. The Kangaroos, on the flip side, are a club in a development phase with all the excuses in the world to succumb to a few losses, but Brad Scott has them playing with some old-fashioned shinboner spirit- and the Wolf thinks this is why they will be able to get the chocolates down in Hobart.
How It’s Shaping Up
North Melbourne by 11
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