AFL Preview Round 9: Blues v Demons

Sunday afternoon action kicks off at lunchtime at the ‘G, with traditional rivals the Blues taking on the Demons in what is shaping up to be a massive day of footy. Carlton finally broke through for a win last round against Essendon, but they will face a resurgent Demons side who will be full of confidence after their 69 point win last round. Now is the game where those strutting Dees need to prove they have changed- that they can put the weaker sides away and stay as Top 8 contenders. The Demons boys better be careful though, or Bolton might spray them with another expletive-ridden crusade- and we all know those chardonnay-sipping MCC members will spit out their brie if that happens again.

Form

Carlton (LLLLW) – They won! They finally won! The odds for the Blues were very generous last round, considering they were up against a hapless Bombers side- and they duly delivered with a gallant, dour performance led by the Curnow brothers and midfield bull Patrick Cripps. It was clear the Blues came into the contest with a number of preconceived individual tactics, and the role players played their part to perfection.

Melbourne (LLWWW) – Melbourne have won 3 on the trot, but those wins came against Essendon, St. Kilda and the Gold Coast- so the jury is still out given the two games that preceded those yielded consecutive 40+ point losses. The Dees set a record for Inside 50’s (83) last round against the Suns- and were unlucky not to win by more after they put the foot down in the final term with 51 points to 14.

Stats That Matter
– The Demons are 4-1 ATS in away fixtures this season
– Ed Curnow is averaging 120 Fantasy points per game in 2018
– Melbourne won both their meetings last year
– Clayton Oliver averages 29 disposals and 111 Fantasy points a game against Carlton
– The Dees are averaging 97 points a game this season
– Carlton have won just 7 of their last 23 matches at the MCG

Betting Data

2018 Line: Carlton- 4-4; Melbourne- 5-3

2018 Over-Under: Carlton- 4-4; Melbourne- 4-4

What To Expect

Carlton have finally got the monkey of their back but the Wolf isn’t expecting them to be able to match the Demons. Melbourne have often, in the past, gotten lazy and lost the easy games (even when Finals are on the line)- but somehow Wolfie is thinking this may be finally starting to turn. It may not be pretty but the Dees look to have much more top-level talent than the Blues and if they bring some effort they should be able to put the Blues away.

How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 21

Pump It Up Price Special: Hogan/McDonald 8+ Goals & Demons 1-39 ($11.00)

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Melbourne First to 20 Points- 1st Quarter ($1.70)
Value Bet: Melbourne 1-24 ($3.90)
Player Prop: Clayton Oliver 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Charlie Spargo

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