AFL Preview Round 5: Magpies v Bombers

The much anticipated ANZAC Day clash is upon us for 2018, and many would argue this is a greater spectacle than the corporatized Grand Final. For the first time in a long while, both sides come into this fixture in reasonable form, and this is expected to be a tight encounter with plenty of fire. The past 5 ANZAC games are split 3-2 to Collingwood, with the Pies boasting a number of ‘ANZAC Specialists’ who know how to fire on the big day. Two of those are Steele Sidebottom (1 x ANZAC Medal; 3 x games with Brownlow votes) and Scott Pendlebury (2 x ANZAC Medal; 5 x games with Brownlow votes) who will present a big challenge for the inconsistent Essendon on-ball brigade led by Zac Merrett.

Form

Collingwood (LLWW) – The Pies stunned the footy world with a remarkable 48 point win over the Crows in Adelaide last round in what was a complete performance. Underrated midfield star Steele Sidebottom is averaging 33 disposals and a goal a game in 2018 and he is reaping the rewards of a career-best season from the League’s (current) premier ruckman, Brodie Grundy. Finally, the Pies are all clicking at the same time. 

Essendon (WLLW) – Essendon responded to two disappointing losses with a strong performance at Etihad Stadium over Port. The losses had been punctuated by poor application and defensive pressure all over the ground- and this returned in spades against Port, and the forward line took advantage. The problem is, as with Melbourne, it is incredibly hard to analyse their inconsistent form line. 

Stats That Matter
– Essendon have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
– Steele Sidebottom averages 28 disposals, 1.7 goals and 117 Fantasy points per game against the Bombers
– The last 4 ANZAC clashes have seen over 180 Total Points
– Collingwood are 3-1 ATS this season
– Orazio Fantasia has kicked 11 goals in his past 3 games against Collingwood
– The Bombers are 10-3 at home in their past 13
– Adam Treloar averages 31 disposals and 7 tackles per game against Essendon

Betting Data
2018 Line: Collingwood– 3-1; Essendon– 2-2
2018 Over-Under: Collingwood– 1-3; Essendon– 2-2

What To Expect

For the first time this season, the Wolf is expecting a Collingwood win! They were simply superlative against the Crows, and their midfield is probably the form group in the competition at the moment- and that is what wins the big games. Essendon could very well pull out a massive performance full of breathtaking attacking footy- but they are too hit and miss for the Wolf to get behind. Pies in a tight one!

How It’s Shaping Up
Collingwood by 3

Recommended Bets

Best: Collingwood WIN ($1.81)
Value: Adam Treloar 8+ Tackles ($3.50)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: Ben Reid
ANZAC Medal: Brodie Grundy ($11.00)

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 5

Round 5 Matches (Previews)
(Times – AEST)
AFL Tips
Sydney v Adelaide
Fri 19:50
Best: Franklin 3+ Goals & Sydney WIN ($2.00)
Value: Sydney -15.5 & Over 179.5 ($4.20)
Player Prop: Luke Parker 6+ Tackles ($1.85)
First Goalscorer: Oliver Florent ($21.00)
St. Kilda v GWS
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS -23.5 ($1.90)
Value: St. Kilda 0-9 Total Goals ($2.90)
Player Prop: Jeremy Cameron 5+ Goals ($3.50)
First Goalscorer: Harrison Himmelberg ($17.00)
Carlton v West Coast
Sat 16:35
Best: Kennedy 3+ Goals and West Coast WIN ($1.75)
Value: West Coast by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Elliot Yeo 110+ Fantasy Points ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Josh Kennedy ($6.00)
Port Adelaide v Geelong
Sat 19:40
Best: Port Adelaide 1-39 ($2.15)
Value: Joel Selwood 30+ Disposals/Jared Polec 25+ Disposals/Charlie Dixon 2+ Goals ($5.74)
Player Prop: Charlie Dixon 3+ Goals ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Todd Marshall ($15.00)
Peter Badcoe VC Medal: Travis Boak ($13.00)
Fremantle v Bulldogs
Sat 20:10
Best: Fremantle WIN ($1.60)
Value: Western Bulldogs +15.5 & Under 159.5 ($3.00)
Player Prop: Nat Fyfe 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.00)
First Goalscorer: Cam McCarthy ($12.00)
North Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 15:20
Best: Hawthorn -14.5 ($1.91)
Value: Liam Shiels 10+ Tackles ($3.30)
Player Prop: Jaeger O’Meara 110+ Fantasy Points ($3.15)
First Goalscorer: Luke Breust
Brisbane v Gold Coast
Sun 16:45
Best: Gold Coast WIN ($2.15)
Value: HT/FT Double- Brisbane/Gold Coast ($7.00)
Player Prop: Dayne Beams 30+ Disposals ($2.40)
First Goalscorer: Eric Hipwood
Marcus Ashcroft Medal: David Swallow ($8.00)
Melbourne v Richmond
Tuesday 19:25
Best: Wire to Wire- ANY OTHER RESULT ($2.05)
Value: Richmond 1-24 ($3.30)
Player Prop: Jesse Hogan 3+ Goals ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan
Collingwood v Essendon
Sun 16:40
Best: Collingwood WIN ($1.81)
Value: Adam Treloar 8+ Tackles ($3.50)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: Ben Reid
ANZAC Medal: Brodie Grundy ($11.00)
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse
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