AFL Preview Round 5: Kangaroos v Hawks

The first game on Sunday afternoon sees North Melbourne take on the Hawks at Etihad Stadium, with both sides sitting inside the eight. The Kangaroos have surprised many footy fans with their performances this year, while Hawthorn just keep grinding away. It may not be one of the prettiest games you’ll ever see, but it will likely be a very absorbing clash.

Form

North Melbourne (LWLW) – It is hard to believe but North Melbourne won by 86 points last round- 86! Throw in their 52 point win over the Saints and you have an average winning margin of 69- remarkable for a side many tipped to finish on the bottom of the ladder. Ben Brown has kicked 15 goals this season already, and is once again papering over the cracks of a side lacking any genuine match-winners in the midfield.

Hawthorn (WWLW) – Another side that many tipped to slide down the ladder, Hawthorn have been solid, if unspectacular, this season. Their only loss was a noble one to Richmond by 13 points, and in all the other games they have shown patches of returning to the Hawks of old. Tom Mitchell and Jaegar O’Meara have been the form midfield pairing of the comp, and the forward line has looked very dangerous- with Jarryd Roughead and Luke Breust standouts.

Stats That Matter
– Hawthorn have won the past 4 meetings with an average margin of 33 points
– Luke Breust (11 goals in 2018) kicked 4 goals in their last clash
– North have gone Unders in 4 of their past 5 games
– Ben Brown is averaging 3.8 goals per match in 2018
– The Hawks are 3-1 ATS this season
– Jaegar O’Meara amassed 126 Fantasy points from his 26 disposal, 2 goal performance last round
– North Melbourne are 4-9 ATS at Etihad across 2017/8

Betting Data
2018 Line: North Melbourne– 2-2; Hawthorn– 3-1
2018 Over-Under: North Melbourne– 1-3; Hawthorn– 2-2

What To Expect

The Wolf thinks this game may be closer than many expect- with Rioli and Puopolo huge outs for the Hawks. The ‘Roos have been travelling well of late but the Hawks are a different story and should prove too good for a developing Kangaroos side. Wolfie is siding with the Hawks here.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 17

Recommended Bets

Best: Hawthorn -14.5 ($1.91)
Value: Liam Shiels 10+ Tackles ($3.30)
Player Prop: Jaeger O’Meara 110+ Fantasy Points ($3.15)
First Goalscorer: Luke Breust

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 5

Round 5 Matches (Previews)
(Times – AEST)
AFL Tips
Sydney v Adelaide
Fri 19:50
Best: Franklin 3+ Goals & Sydney WIN ($2.00)
Value: Sydney -15.5 & Over 179.5 ($4.20)
Player Prop: Luke Parker 6+ Tackles ($1.85)
First Goalscorer: Oliver Florent ($21.00)
St. Kilda v GWS
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS -23.5 ($1.90)
Value: St. Kilda 0-9 Total Goals ($2.90)
Player Prop: Jeremy Cameron 5+ Goals ($3.50)
First Goalscorer: Harrison Himmelberg ($17.00)
Carlton v West Coast
Sat 16:35
Best: Kennedy 3+ Goals and West Coast WIN ($1.75)
Value: West Coast by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Elliot Yeo 110+ Fantasy Points ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Josh Kennedy ($6.00)
Port Adelaide v Geelong
Sat 19:40
Best: Port Adelaide 1-39 ($2.15)
Value: Joel Selwood 30+ Disposals/Jared Polec 25+ Disposals/Charlie Dixon 2+ Goals ($5.74)
Player Prop: Charlie Dixon 3+ Goals ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Todd Marshall ($15.00)
Peter Badcoe VC Medal: Travis Boak ($13.00)
Fremantle v Bulldogs
Sat 20:10
Best: Fremantle WIN ($1.60)
Value: Western Bulldogs +15.5 & Under 159.5 ($3.00)
Player Prop: Nat Fyfe 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.00)
First Goalscorer: Cam McCarthy ($12.00)
North Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 15:20
Best: Hawthorn -14.5 ($1.91)
Value: Liam Shiels 10+ Tackles ($3.30)
Player Prop: Jaeger O’Meara 110+ Fantasy Points ($3.15)
First Goalscorer: Luke Breust
Brisbane v Gold Coast
Sun 16:45
Best: Gold Coast WIN ($2.15)
Value: HT/FT Double- Brisbane/Gold Coast ($7.00)
Player Prop: Dayne Beams 30+ Disposals ($2.40)
First Goalscorer: Eric Hipwood
Marcus Ashcroft Medal: David Swallow ($8.00)
Melbourne v Richmond
Tuesday 19:25
Best: Wire to Wire- ANY OTHER RESULT ($2.05)
Value: Richmond 1-24 ($3.30)
Player Prop: Jesse Hogan 3+ Goals ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan
Collingwood v Essendon
Sun 16:40
Best: Collingwood WIN ($1.81)
Value: Adam Treloar 8+ Tackles ($3.50)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: Ben Reid
ANZAC Medal: Brodie Grundy ($11.00)
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse
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