AFL Preview Round 5: Demons v Tigers

Round 7 will continue on ANZAC Day Eve when the Dees and the Tigers clash on the MCG. Melbourne were diabolical last round, going down by 67 points to the Hawks, despite starting as favourites. Richmond, on the other hand, smashed the hapless Lions by 93 points and look primed to get their 4th win at the ‘G this year from 4 games.

Form

Melbourne (LWWL) – Melbourne did what Melbourne do best last round- disappoint their supporters. In a game where they were favourites; they were out-worked, out-skilled, out-thought and simply found wanting against a Hawthorn side that clearly wanted to win more and did- despite having 3 game-ending injuries during the match! 

Richmond (WLWW) – If there were any doubts about how much the Tiges love the ‘G, they were well and truly dispelled with their massive 93 point win over a hapless Lions side. Perhaps more can be read into the tough-fought win over the Hawks in Round 3, when Trent Cotchin led his side to a 13 point win despite strong games from Hawks Mitchell, McEvoy and Roughead. 

Stats That Matter
– Richmond are 3-0 at the MCG this year
– The past 5 meetings are split 3-2 to Melbourne
– Jack Riewoldt kicked 6 goals last time they met
– The Dees are 4-10 ATS in their past 14 games at the ‘G
– Max Gawn is averaging 114 AFL Fantasy points per game in 2018
– Richmond are kicking 103 points per game this season

Betting Data
2018 Line: Melbourne– 2-2; Richmond– 2-2
2018 Over-Under: Melbourne– 2-2; Richmond– 3-1

What To Expect

Who knows what Demons side to expect! Either way, what we do know, is these Tigers are flying- and they have made themselves incredibly hard to beat at the ‘G. The Wolf thinks Melbourne (quite rightly) should come out fired up and full of fight- but is expecting the stingy Richmond defence to be able to absorb that pressure and allow their midfield to run over the top of them late in the game.

How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 16

Recommended Bets

Best: Wire to Wire- Any Other Result ($2.05)
Value: Richmond 1-24 ($3.30)
Player Prop: Jesse Hogan 3+ Goals ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 5

Round 5 Matches (Previews)
(Times – AEST)
AFL Tips
Sydney v Adelaide
Fri 19:50
Best: Franklin 3+ Goals & Sydney WIN ($2.00)
Value: Sydney -15.5 & Over 179.5 ($4.20)
Player Prop: Luke Parker 6+ Tackles ($1.85)
First Goalscorer: Oliver Florent ($21.00)
St. Kilda v GWS
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS -23.5 ($1.90)
Value: St. Kilda 0-9 Total Goals ($2.90)
Player Prop: Jeremy Cameron 5+ Goals ($3.50)
First Goalscorer: Harrison Himmelberg ($17.00)
Carlton v West Coast
Sat 16:35
Best: Kennedy 3+ Goals and West Coast WIN ($1.75)
Value: West Coast by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Elliot Yeo 110+ Fantasy Points ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Josh Kennedy ($6.00)
Port Adelaide v Geelong
Sat 19:40
Best: Port Adelaide 1-39 ($2.15)
Value: Joel Selwood 30+ Disposals/Jared Polec 25+ Disposals/Charlie Dixon 2+ Goals ($5.74)
Player Prop: Charlie Dixon 3+ Goals ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Todd Marshall ($15.00)
Peter Badcoe VC Medal: Travis Boak ($13.00)
Fremantle v Bulldogs
Sat 20:10
Best: Fremantle WIN ($1.60)
Value: Western Bulldogs +15.5 & Under 159.5 ($3.00)
Player Prop: Nat Fyfe 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.00)
First Goalscorer: Cam McCarthy ($12.00)
North Melbourne v Hawthorn
Sat 15:20
Best: Hawthorn -14.5 ($1.91)
Value: Liam Shiels 10+ Tackles ($3.30)
Player Prop: Jaeger O’Meara 110+ Fantasy Points ($3.15)
First Goalscorer: Luke Breust
Brisbane v Gold Coast
Sun 16:45
Best: Gold Coast WIN ($2.15)
Value: HT/FT Double- Brisbane/Gold Coast ($7.00)
Player Prop: Dayne Beams 30+ Disposals ($2.40)
First Goalscorer: Eric Hipwood
Marcus Ashcroft Medal: David Swallow ($8.00)
Melbourne v Richmond
Tuesday 19:25
Best: Wire to Wire- ANY OTHER RESULT ($2.05)
Value: Richmond 1-24 ($3.30)
Player Prop: Jesse Hogan 3+ Goals ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan
Collingwood v Essendon
Sun 16:40
Best: Collingwood WIN ($1.81)
Value: Adam Treloar 8+ Tackles ($3.50)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: Ben Reid
ANZAC Medal: Brodie Grundy ($11.00)
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