AFL Preview Round 4: Tigers v Lions

It will likely be a typically drizzly Melbourne day on Saturday afternoon when the Lions travel down to take on the Tigers. Brisbane stunned the Alberton crowd with their performance last round against Port, and will be up and about in search of their first win in 2018. Unfortunately for them, however, they will have to take on the 2017 Premiers, who have looked reasonably solid over the first few rounds. The Lions will have to bring their new brutish contested game style, and out-enthuse the manic Tigers if they are to have any chance- but this is a huge task at the MCG.

Form
Richmond (WLW) – After a heavy defeat to Adelaide in Round 2, the Tigers responded with a tough win over the Hawks, despite Dusty Martin being relatively quiet. The defence was absolutely superb, and broke down wave after wave of Hawthorn attacks; while Trent Cotchin led from the front in a superb display that netted 31 disposals, 8 clearances and 7 inside 50’s.

Brisbane (LLL) – The Lions almost pulled off the biggest upset of recent memory when they pushed Port all the way in Adelaide last round, before eventually succumbing by a mere 5 points. Stefan Martin was absolutely colossal in the ruck, but Chris Fagan will be particularly pleased with the contributions and competitiveness from his young rookies.

Stats That Matter
– Richmond have won their past 11 games against Brisbane
– Trent Cotchin averages 107 Fantasy points per game against the Lions- his highest against any team
– The Tigers are 3-0 on the Over/Under this year
– Richmond won both their meetings last year, at an average margin of 41 points
– Brisbane are 3-10 ATS away from home
– The Tigers have allowed at least 1 opposition player to rack up 35+ disposals in every game this year
– Jack Riewoldt has kicked 16 goals in his past 4 games against Brisbane

Betting Data
2018 Line:  Richmond– 1-2; Brisbane– 1-2
2018 Over-Under: Richmond– 3-0; Brisbane– 1-2

What To Expect
The Wolf is a big fan of the way these Lions cubs go about their footy, but the Tigers defence was almost impregnable against the Hawks, and it is hard to see how this young forward line can stretch the experienced, and suffocating, defence. The fact this game is at the ‘G, where Richmond have thrived, makes it all the more tougher. The Wolf is expecting a close contest in the intial stages before Richmond kick away in the 4th quarter.

How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 28

Recommended Bets

Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 4

Round 4 Matches (Previews) AFL Tips
Adelaide v Collingwood
Fri 19:50
Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Multi – Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)
GWS v Fremantle
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 
Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 14:10 
Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sat 16:35 
Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Multi – Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair
Nth Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19:25 
Best: Over 178.5 points ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sat 20:10
Best: 4th Quarter- West Coast -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Dom Sheed 30+ Disposals ($3.25)
Player Prop: Luke Shuey 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
First Goalscorer: Mark LeCras
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 13:10
Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double – Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 15:20
Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead
Geelong v St Kilda
Sun 16:40
Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Zach Tuohy 25+ Disposals ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse

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