AFL Preview Round 4: Kangaroos v Blues

Blundstone Arena in Hobart sees action for the first time in 2018 when the 11th placed Kangaroos take on the 18th placed Blues. It is certainly a game that could potentially go either way- it is hard for a punter to trust either of these sides, but the Wolf thinks he has found a good play on the Overs. Ignore the two outliers of the Kangaroos season- inaccuracy and cyclonic weather led to lower scores than it should have; and Carlton are certainly not shy in inviting teams into their backline again and again. Which team can take advantage of the expected high winds and start to climb off the bottom of the ladder?

North Melbourne (LWL) – The Kangaroos sit pretty much where the Wolf expected them to preseason, with patches of good footy punctuated by long periods of complete disarray. They couldn’t find a way to stem the momentum of the Demons last round, but they hung in better against the Saints in round 2. If they knew what the 2 big sticks looked like in that game they might have won by 100.

Carlton (LLL) – Brenton Bolton must have a very big book of cliches and buzz words- because Carlton just keep finding a way to lose when Bolton insists they are making good progress. Charlie Curnow and Patrick Cripps have proved they are genuine stars of the competition- but at the moment the defence and midfield are a shambles, and there is no beating around the bush in that respect.

Stats That Matter
– Carlton have lost 12 of their past 13
– North have won 11 of their 15 games in Hobart, while Carlton have never played there
– Matt Kreuzer had 132 Fantasy Points the last time they met
– The Roos have won the past 3 meetings between the two sides
– Ed Curnow had 32 disposals in their last meeting, and is averaging 30.7 per game this year
– The Blues are 2-10 away from home in their past 12

Betting Data
2018 Line: North Melb– 1-2; Carlton– 1-2
2018 Over-Under: North Melb– 1-2; Carlton– 2-1

What To Expect
The Wolf is not expecting a pretty clash down in windy Hobart, and is not recommending tuning into the game! That being said, there are still a few interesting markets from a punting perspective that look to have some value. North Melbourne are well versed in how to play in Hobart, and it will certainly have some semblance of home for them. Based on that, and the likelihood of an open midfield battle, the Wolf is expecting the Roos to prevail in a high-scoring encounter.

How It’s Shaping Up
North Melbourne by 14

Recommended Bets

Best: Total Points OVER 178.5 ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 4

Round 4 Matches (Previews) AFL Tips
Adelaide v Collingwood
Fri 19:50
Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Multi – Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)
GWS v Fremantle
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 
Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 14:10 
Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sat 16:35 
Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Multi – Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair
Nth Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19:25 
Best: Over 178.5 points ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sat 20:10
Best: 4th Quarter- West Coast -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Dom Sheed 30+ Disposals ($3.25)
Player Prop: Luke Shuey 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
First Goalscorer: Mark LeCras
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 13:10
Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double – Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 15:20
Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead
Geelong v St Kilda
Sun 16:40
Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Zach Tuohy 25+ Disposals ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse


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