AFL Preview Round 4: Hawks v Demons

It is Sunday afternoon footy at the ‘G, with Hawthorn taking on Melbourne for what promises to be a blockbuster clash. Both sides are sitting 2-1 to start the season, although one might argue the quality of Hawthorn’s opponents has been much higher. Tom Mitchell continues to get leather poisoning, and he has been ably assisted by the (finally) fit again Jaeger O’Meara while the return of James Sicily should allow Jack Gunston to return to where he is most dangerous- in front of goal. For Melbourne, Jesse Hogan has been huge- with the power forward also rolling through the midfield; much like his talented teammate Christian Petracca, who is averaging 24 disposals and 1.7 goals a game.
You won’t want to miss this clash, where there is plenty of value to be found for the plucky punter.

Hawthorn (WWL) – After two strong wins to start the year, the Hawks were gallant in last round’s defeat to Richmond. They had the run of play for much of the game, and it was simply poor execution that let them down. Alistair Clarkson will certainly have something up his sleeve again for this one.

Melbourne (LWW) – If it wasn’t for Max Gawn’s horrendous shank in Round 1, the Demons would currently be sitting undefeated at the top of the ladder with Port Adelaide. They haven’t exactly lit the world on fire in their victories over Brisbane and North Melbourne, but the performances of Gawn and Jesse Hogan, in particular, will give supporters something to smile about.

Stats That Matter
– Hawthorn have won 14 of their past 15 meetings
– Tom Mitchell has amassed 40+ disposals in every match this year
– The Demons are the highest scoring side this year while the Hawks sit fourth
– Max Gawn averages 113 Fantasy Points per game against Hawthorn
– Hawthorn have outscored their opponents by 41 in 2nd quarters this season
– Jarryd Roughead kicked 4 goals last time they met
– Melbourne are 4-9 ATS at home since the start of 2017

Betting Data
2018 Line: Hawthorn – 2-1; Melbourne– 2-1
2018 Over-Under: Hawthorn – 2-1; Melbourne– 2-1

What To Expect
The Wolf is expecting a tight contest for the whole game, with lead changes galore. The ruck battle between Gawn and McEvoy will be an absorbing one- and critical to the whole contest. If McEvoy can stretch Gawn (and the Wolf thinks he can), Hawthorn are better equipped to win a close one.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 8

Recommended Bets

Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 4

Round 4 Matches (Previews) AFL Tips
Adelaide v Collingwood
Fri 19:50
Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Multi – Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)
GWS v Fremantle
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 
Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 14:10 
Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sat 16:35 
Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Multi – Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair
Nth Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19:25 
Best: Over 178.5 points ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sat 20:10
Best: 4th Quarter- West Coast -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Dom Sheed 30+ Disposals ($3.25)
Player Prop: Luke Shuey 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
First Goalscorer: Mark LeCras
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 13:10
Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double – Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 15:20
Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead
Geelong v St Kilda
Sun 16:40
Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Zach Tuohy 25+ Disposals ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse


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