AFL Preview Round 4: Giants v Dockers

Footy heads back down to Canberra on Saturday afternoon, as the Giants look to secure their 8th consecutive win at Manuka against the 10th-placed Dockers. With Nat Fyfe returning to his Brownlow Medal winning form, and Aaron Sandilands coming up against a sparse Giants ruck department, Freo will be hopeful of pulling off a huge upset. The Giants, however, will be smarting after a tough-fought loss to the Swans and should come flying out of the blocks.

Form
GWS (WWL) – Despite falling to the Swans last round, the Giants lost no admirers with a strong showing in the 16 point defeat. They were very fierce around the footy, but turned the ball over too many times; gifting the Swans more opportunities than they probably ought. Don’t expect the same to happen again.

Fremantle (LWW) – Not many would have envisaged Fremantle responding to the diabolical 50 point loss to Port in Round 1 with 2 confident victories. Lachie Neale and Nat Fyfe have been outstanding, particularly around the contest- and Adam Sandilands has certainly played his part in that; while Alex Pearce has returned to footy in outstanding nick, taking a few big key forward scalps.

Stats That Matter
– The Giants have kicked 36 more points than their opponents in 2nd Quarters this year
– Stephen Coniglio averages 28 disposals per match in his last 4 against Freo
– GWS have won their past 7 in a row in Canberra
– Fremantle are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 away games
– Lachie Neale averages 35 disposals and 119.5 Fantasy points per game against GWS
– The Giants have won the past 5 meetings between the two
– GWS have only lost 1 of their past 13 matches at home

Betting Data
2018 Line: GWS– 1-2; Fremantle– 2-1
2018 Over-Under: GWS– 2-1; Fremantle– 1-2

What To Expect
The Wolf has been a little surprised about how the Dockers have been travelling over the past fortnight, but doesn’t see that trend continuing in Canberra. GWS have been very good in Canberra, and will be hardened by their loss to the Swans last round. Aaron Sandilands will give his midfielders plenty of looks at the footy, however, which could keep the margin a bit closer than expected.

How It’s Shaping Up
GWS by 34

Recommended Bets

Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 4

Round 4 Matches (Previews) AFL Tips
Adelaide v Collingwood
Fri 19:50
Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Multi – Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)
GWS v Fremantle
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 
Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 14:10 
Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sat 16:35 
Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Multi – Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair
Nth Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19:25 
Best: Over 178.5 points ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sat 20:10
Best: 4th Quarter- West Coast -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Dom Sheed 30+ Disposals ($3.25)
Player Prop: Luke Shuey 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
First Goalscorer: Mark LeCras
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 13:10
Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double – Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 15:20
Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead
Geelong v St Kilda
Sun 16:40
Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Zach Tuohy 25+ Disposals ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse

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