AFL Preview Round 4: Crows v Magpies

Round 4 kicks off at the Adelaide Oval on Friday night with the Crows taking on the Pies. Their clash last year was an absolute doozy, when the Crows chased down a 38 point deficit and secured a dramatic tie after the siren- but it is hard to see the home side getting that complacent this time around. The Crows have been mightily impressive in the way they have controlled the ball through Rory Laird, Bryce Gibbs, Sam Jacobs, Tom Lynch and Rory Sloane- and for the Pies to have any chance in this fixture, they will have to apply a huge amount of pressure on the Crow’s ball carriers.

Form
Adelaide (LWW) – After their opening round blip, the Crows have shown signs of perhaps returning to their 2017 form- despite missing a couple of key players. ‘Tex’ and Josh Jenkins have looked imposing up forward in the past two games, while Bryce Gibbs could be the missing ingredient needing in their quest for the 2018 Premiership.

Collingwood (LLW) – After a disappointing start to the season, the Pies finally got their first win of 2018 last round, albeit against a poor Carlton side. They will need to find a way for their forward line to fire against a suffocating Crows defence led by Daniel Talia.

Stats That Matter
– Collingwood have not won at Adelaide Oval in 4 attempts
– Adelaide are averaging 103 points per game in 2018
– Steele Sidebottom averages 112 Fantasy Points per game against the Crows, with 110+ in his past 3 games against them
– The Pies haven’t beaten the Crows since 2013
– 4 Collingwood players registered at least 30 disposals in their game against Adelaide last year
– The Crows are 11-4 ATS at home in 2017 and 2018

Betting Data
2018 Line: Adelaide– 2-1; Collingwood– 2-1
2018 Over-Under: Adelaide– 1-2; Collingwood– 1-2

What To Expect
The Wolf is finding it hard to make a case for Collingwood at Adelaide Oval. They haven’t been able to win on Adelaide Oval yet, and they have a poor recent record against the Crows as well. The pieces are still falling in place for Adelaide, but they are certainly going well enough to comfortably account for a mediocre Pies side here.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 32

Recommended Bets

Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Scott Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Steele Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 4

Round 4 Matches (Previews) AFL Tips
Adelaide v Collingwood
Fri 19:50
Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Multi – Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)
GWS v Fremantle
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 
Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 14:10 
Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sat 16:35 
Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Multi – Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair
Nth Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19:25 
Best: Over 178.5 points ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sat 20:10
Best: 4th Quarter- West Coast -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Dom Sheed 30+ Disposals ($3.25)
Player Prop: Luke Shuey 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
First Goalscorer: Mark LeCras
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 13:10
Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double – Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 15:20
Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead
Geelong v St Kilda
Sun 16:40
Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Zach Tuohy 25+ Disposals ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse

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