AFL Preview Round 4: Cats v Saints

The last game for round 4 is a twilight clash down at Geelong, where the Saints will be attempting to win there for the first time in almost 20 years. Both sides have had poor starts to the season, and are in desperate need of a jump-start. The Cats lose the little master, Gary Ablett, to a hamstring injury; but the loss of Cam Guthrie from the backline (and the luckless Nakia Cockatoo) is immense given lack of experience down back. Can St. Kilda push the Cats all the way, and learn how to kick in front of goal?

Form
Geelong (WLL) – Geelong have been very poor to start the season, and they are very lucky not to be sitting 0-3. Too much has been left to Selwood, Ablett and Dangerfield, and Chris Scott will be very disappointed with the number of passengers. They won’t get many better chances to kickstart their season than taking on a poor Saints side in Geelong, though.

St. Kilda (WLL) – There aren’t enough adjectives in the world to describe how poor the Saints have been in the past fortnight. They have kicked 12.26, and have barely given a whimper against the Roos and Crows. Jack Steven has been gallant, but too many of his teammates are guilty of poor work-rate and horrid execution.

Stats That Matter
– St. Kilda hasn’t won at Geelong since 1999
– In their last meeting, Joel Selwood had 43 touches and a goal
– The Cats went 6-1 at Geelong last year
– St. Kilda is 0-3 on the Over/Under this year
– Mitch Duncan averages 117 Fantasy Points per game against the Saints
– Tom Hawkins has kicked 11 goals in his past 4 games against St Kilda

Betting Data
2018 Line: Geelong– 1-2; St Kilda– 1-2
2018 Over-Under: Geelong– 2-1; St Kilda– 0-3

What To Expect
The Cats have started 2018 quite poorly, but the Wolf is expecting their season to kick into gear down in Geelong on Sunday. The line (+28.5) for St. Kilda looks quite generous given the key outs for Geelong, and the Wolf is expecting them to stay reasonably close, but there is a clear gulf in class across all the lines and Geelong should be too strong for the Saints.

How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 21

Recommended Bets

Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 4

Round 4 Matches (Previews) AFL Tips
Adelaide v Collingwood
Fri 19:50
Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Multi – Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)
GWS v Fremantle
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 
Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 14:10 
Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sat 16:35 
Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Multi – Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair
Nth Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19:25 
Best: Over 178.5 points ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sat 20:10
Best: 4th Quarter- West Coast -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Dom Sheed 30+ Disposals ($3.25)
Player Prop: Luke Shuey 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
First Goalscorer: Mark LeCras
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 13:10
Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double – Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 15:20
Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead
Geelong v St Kilda
Sun 16:40
Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Zach Tuohy 25+ Disposals ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse

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