AFL Preview Round 4: Bulldogs v Swans

The Saturday twilight fixture for Round 4 sees a replay of the 2016 Grand Final, with the Swans hoping to reverse that result with a dominant victory over the Bulldogs at Etihad. The Bulldogs finally got their first win of the season last round, but Essendon applied no semblance of pressure whatsoever- and you can bet your life on the Swans making sure the Bulldogs feel every touch. With an undersized and inexperienced back line, and Lance Franklin in career-best goalkicking touch, the Western Bulldogs look primed to be on the end of a big defeat- but is everything back to normal at the Kennel again? And does that mean they’ve remembered how to play footy?

Form
Western Bulldogs (LLW) – It’s hard to know whether the Bombers were just that bad, or the Bulldogs were good last round; but what we do know is that there is finally an element of frenzied tackling pressure around the ground- the trait their Premiership was built on. They’ll need that, and then some, against this deep Sydney midfield.

Sydney (WLW) – The lead see-sawed for much of the game when they took on GWS last Saturday, but John Longmire will be happy with the way his hardened veterans stood up when the game was on the line. The fact Buddy was quelled for much of the match, and Sydney were still too good, spells ominous signs for the Dogs.

Stats That Matter
– Buddy has kicked 22 goals in 6 matches against the Bulldogs as a Swan
– 4 of their last 5 meetings have gone Unders
– Sydney have lost 4 of their past 5 against the Bulldogs
– Jake Lloyd had 30+ disposals in both his matches against the Dogs last year
– Sydney have won 12 of their last 13 games at Etihad
– The Bulldogs have conceded, on average, 101 points per game- the worst in the AFL

Betting Data
2018 Line: 2018 Over-Under: Western Bulldogs– 1-2; Sydney– 2-1
2018 Over-Under: Western Bulldogs– 2-1; Sydney– 2-1

What To Expect
The Wolf has big concerns for the Dogs defence in this one- especially based on the likelihood that the Swans midfield will also dominate both inside and outside of the contest. He isn’t going to read to much into last week’s performance by the Bulldogs, and is instead leading with the extra class of the Swans getting the job done away from home. It could be raining goals for the Swans under the roof come Saturday.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 36

Recommended Bets

Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 4

Round 4 Matches (Previews) AFL Tips
Adelaide v Collingwood
Fri 19:50
Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Multi – Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)
GWS v Fremantle
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 
Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 14:10 
Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sat 16:35 
Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Multi – Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair
Nth Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19:25 
Best: Over 178.5 points ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sat 20:10
Best: 4th Quarter- West Coast -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Dom Sheed 30+ Disposals ($3.25)
Player Prop: Luke Shuey 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
First Goalscorer: Mark LeCras
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 13:10
Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double – Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 15:20
Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead
Geelong v St Kilda
Sun 16:40
Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Zach Tuohy 25+ Disposals ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse

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