AFL Preview Round 4: Bombers v Power

Essendon will look to rebound after a horror performance last round against the Bulldogs when they host the Power at Etihad on Sunday afternoon. John Worsfold will have no doubt delivered a few rockets to his players, who look to have bought into their own hype a little too much- and the Bombers faithful will be expecting a big response. That won’t be easy against the only team that still sits undefeated, and has looked very sharp in the early stages of this season. Last year the game, also at Etihad, was over at half-time when the Bombers led by over 50 points; and you would expect Ken Hinkley will leave no stone unturned to make sure history doesn’t repeat itself.

Form
Essendon (WLL) – Essendon were completely flattered by the 21 point deficit against the Bulldogs last week. They really should have lost by 40+, thanks to some of the most horrendous turnovers you’ll ever see. Worsfold labelled the performance worse than any performance in their write-off 2016 season, and they must respond with vigour.

Port Adelaide (WWW) – For the first time in 10 years, there is only one team left undefeated after 3 rounds; and it has resulted in Port’s price for the Premiership firming in two points. They got an almighty scare from the Lions last round though, when their line was -56.5; but at the end of the day, their 5 point win over the Lions may go someway towards eroding the doubts about close finishes.

Stats That Matter
– Last year the Bombers thumped Port by 70 points at Etihad
– In that game, Daniher and Hooker combined for 9 goals
– Essendon are 9-3 in their past 12 games at home
– Both sides missed the spread by over 40 points last round
– Unders has hit for the two sides on 4 out of 6 occasions this year
– Zach Merrett averages 27.5 disposals, 8 tackles and 124 Fantasy points per game against Port

Betting Data
2018 Line: Essendon– 1-2; Port Adelaide– 2-1
2018 Over-Under: Essendon– 1-2; Port Adelaide– 1-2

What To Expect
It’s hard to know what to expect in this game, with both sides disappointing last round. A big response is expected by Essendon, but Port have been mighty impressive across the first three rounds and will be well prepared for what is coming for them. The Wolf is going with the Power, who’s midfield are travelling far better than the disappointing Bombers engine room.

How It’s Shaping Up
Port Adelaide by 8

Recommended Bets

Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double- Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 4

Round 4 Matches (Previews) AFL Tips
Adelaide v Collingwood
Fri 19:50
Best: Adelaide 25+ ($1.58)
Value: Multi – Pendlebury 25+ Disposals/Sidebottom 30+ Disposals ($3.04)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Eddie Betts ($11.00)
GWS v Fremantle
Sat 13:45 
Best: GWS Lead At End of Each Quarter ($1.64)
Value: Giants by 20-39 ($3.20)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jonathan Patton 
Richmond v Brisbane
Sat 14:10 
Best: Richmond 1-39 ($2.40)
Value: Dustin Martin 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Trent Cotchin 100+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Jacob Townsend
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sat 16:35 
Best: Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)
Value: Multi – Franklin 4+ Goals/McLean 25+ Disposals/Lloyd 25+ Disposals ($4.90)
Player Prop: Lance Franklin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Callum Sinclair
Nth Melbourne v Carlton
Sat 19:25 
Best: Over 178.5 points ($1.88)
Value: Ben Brown 5+ Goals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Ed Curnow 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jarrad Waite
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sat 20:10
Best: 4th Quarter- West Coast -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Dom Sheed 30+ Disposals ($3.25)
Player Prop: Luke Shuey 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
First Goalscorer: Mark LeCras
Essendon v Port Adelaide
Sun 13:10
Best: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.65)
Value: HT/FT Double – Essendon/Port Adelaide ($6.50)
Player Prop: Dyson Heppell 30+ Disposals ($3.00)
First Goalscorer: Orazio Fantasia
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sun 15:20
Best: Both Teams Score 80 Points ($1.82)
Value: Hawthorn WIN and Over 179.5 ($3.30)
Player Multi: Jarryd Roughead 2+ Goals/Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals ($3.02)
First Goalscorer: Jarryd Roughead
Geelong v St Kilda
Sun 16:40
Best: Wire to Wire- GEELONG ($1.83)
Value: St. Kilda +24.5 & Under 179.5 ($4.00)
Player Prop: Zach Tuohy 25+ Disposals ($1.95)
First Goalscorer: Tom Hawkins 
Mick’s Picks
Expert Analysis From Mick Malthouse

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