AFL Preview: Swans v Dockers

A total mismatch between Sydney and Fremantle kicks off Round 21 Saturday action.

Form
Sydney are absolutely streaking with 11 wins in their last 13 and their only two losses coming against bogey team Hawthorn. The Swans enter this off a 40-plus point demolition of Geelong in Victoria. The Swans are remarkably up to sixth on the ladder with an 11-8 record. Sydney have the second best defence to go with the seventh ran ked attack.

Fremantle are out of the reckoning for the season with an 8-11 record that has left them 14th on the ladder. The Dockers have won just two of their last 10, both wins coming against bottom four teams. The Dockers have not surpassed 90 points in their last 12 games. Three of Fremantle’s last four clashes have been decided by two goals or less.

Stats That Matter

– The Swans have covered 4 of their last 5 against the Dockers.
– Sydney have gone under in five straight and 12 of their last 16 at the SCG.
– The Swans have covered five straight at the SCG when favoured by 40 or more with a 9-5 ATS record and 9-5 over number since 2012.
– Sydney are 12-6 ATS at the SCG as a favourite off 100 or more points.
– The Swans are 12-5 ATS at the SCG in day games since 2012.
– Fremantle have covered three straight interstate games.
– Freo have covered just 4 of their last 11 as an interstate underdog of more than four goals.
– Interstate underdogs of 40 or more off a win cover at just 39% since 2012.
– Fremantle have covered 9 of their last 11 day matches.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Sydney 10-9, Fremantle 10-9
2017 Over-Under: Sydney 8-11, Fremantle 9-10

What To Expect
Slight lean to Sydney at the line here. They are dominant at home in day games and usually back up good attacking performances well. Fremantle are a reasonable defensive outfit though and play their best football during the day and with the line being so big the minus is just a bet.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 55

Recommended Bet
Sydney -45.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Luke Parker has hit 110 points in three of his last five and filled up last time against the Dockers with 28 touches, four marks and nine tackles.

Recommended Bet
Luke Parker 110+ Fantasy Points (1.85) 

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 21

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