AFL Preview: Power v Magpies

Port Adelaide v Collingwood
Sunday 4:40
pm at Adelaide Oval
Best: Collingwood +18.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Adam Treloar 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.72)

Port Adelaide’s Top 8 position could come into jeopardy with a loss here to Collingwood making the final match of Round 21 a fascinating affair.

Form
Port Adelaide have won just three of their last six and while they remain fifth on the ladder with an 11-8 record, they are just a single win off 11th position. The Power were hammered in the Showdown last week and have been held to 65 points or fewer in their last three. The Power now rank fourth in scoring and third in defence.

Collingwood have found some form recently, not losing in any of their last four. They enter this off their biggest win of the year, a 54-point thrashing of North Melbourne. Collingwood have posted 100-plus in three of their last four. They are 12th on the ladder with an 8-10-1 record with the eighth ranked attack and 11th rated defence.

Stats That Matter

– Port Adelaide have won three straight against Collingwood.
– Port have covered 6 of the 7 clashes with Collingwood since 2012.
– All seven Port-Pies clashes since 2012 have gone under the total.
– Collingwood are 3-0 under at the Adelaide Oval.
– Port are 29-18 under at the Adelaide Oval since 2012 including 20-9 under when favoured by more than two goals.
– Port are 16-13 ATS at the Adelaide Oval when favoured by 12.5 or more.
– Collingwood are 19-8 ATS since 2012 when an outsider of more than two goals, covering eight straight.
– Collingwood are 11-1 ATS as an interstate outsider of 12.5 or more.
– The Magpies have covered 12 of their last 15 interstate games.
– Collingwood are 14-3 under interstate off a win.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Port Adelaide 10-9, Collingwood 11-8
2017 Over-Under: Port Adelaide 8-11, Collingwood 10-9

What To Expect
This is a GREAT betting game to finish the round off with the Collingwood plus and the under BOTH five-chippers in the one game. We are looking at one of the great fill-ups of the season. The biggest problem with this game is the wait. Collingwood are outstanding bets as a big outsider, particularly interstate, while there are under angles everywhere for both teams including playing seven straight under matches.

How It’s Shaping Up
Collingwood by 6

Recommended Bet
Collingwood +18.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Adam Treloar has hit 110 in five of his last eight appearances and is averaging 109.4 for the season.

Recommended Bet
Adam Treloar 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.72) 

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 21

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