AFL Preview: Hawks v Kangaroos

Hawthorn v Nth Melbourne
Sunday 4:40
at University Of Tasmania Stadium
Best: North Melbourne +28.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Jack Ziebell 120+ Fantasy Points ($5.50)

Hawthorn and North have nothing but pride to play for when they meet in Launceston for a clash between the two teams who sometimes call Tasmania home.

Hawthorn’s unlikely late-season bid for a finals berth ended last weekend at the hands of Richmond in what was a 29-point hammering. The Hawks are now 13th on the ladder with an 8-10-1 record. They rank 15th in both scoring and defence. Hawthorn have lost just two of their last seven games, both against Top 4 opposition.

North Melbourne rank 10th in scoring and 16th in defence but are 3 ½ wins shy of Hawthorn with a 5-14 record. The Kangaroos have won just one of their last nine games, an impressive victory over Melbourne. North have conceded at least 110 points in four of their last six games. They have been held to 82 or less in four of their last five.

Stats That Matter

– Hawthorn have won 7 of their last 8 against North Melbourne including three straight.
– North have covered 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Hawks.
– The Hawks have covered just 3 of their last 10 when favoured by more than four goals.
– North have covered 4 of their last 5 getting four goals or more.
– North are 19-12 ATS since 2012 getting a start of 18.5 or more.
– North have covered 8 of their last 10 off a loss of 40 or more.
– Hawthorn are 1-6 ATS in Launceston since the start of 2016.
– The under has hit in 7 of the last 10 matches at Launceston.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Hawthorn 9-10, North Melbourne 8-11
2017 Over-Under: Hawthorn 5-14, North Melbourne 10-9

What To Expect
The line in this one is way too big and we are again siding with North Melbourne getting a big start. The Hawks have been a poor betting proposition in Launceston over the last few years and North are usually pretty good as a big outsider and off a humiliating defeat. Big bounce back hops for North in this one.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 9

Recommended Bet
North Melbourne +28.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Jack Ziebell has hit 120 points in two of his last four so is capable of a big outing. Is playing in season-best form.

Recommended Bet
Jack Ziebell 120+ Fantasy Points ($5.50) 

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 21


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