AFL Preview: Eagles v Blues

West Coast v Carlton
Saturday 7:40
pm at Domain Stadium
Best: West Coast -33.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Andrew Gaff 130+ Fantasy Points ($6.00)

West Coast have dropped out of the Top 8 and desperately need a win over the plucky Carlton to be any chance of playing finals footy this year.

Form
West Coast’s season has gone south quickly with just four wins in their last 11 games that has seen them drop to ninth on the ladder with a 10-9 record. The Eagles rank ninth in scoring and seventh in defence. West Coast are 7-2 at Subiaco this year and have conceded 45 or fewer in their last two at the venue.

Carlton have lost seven straight and have fallen to 17th on the premiership ladder with just five wins from their 19 games. The Blues have the worst attack in the AFL and have not posted a score of 100 all year, being kept to 83 or fewer in nine straight. Carlton have lost only four games this year by more than five goals.

Stats That Matter

– West Coast have won the last two against Carlton and five of their last seven.
– Carlton have covered 4 of 5 against West Coast since 2012.
– The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Eagles-Blues clashes.
– West Coast are 42-32 ATS at Subiaco since 2012.
– The Eagles are 18-4 ATS as a favourite of more than five goals at Subiaco.
– West Coast are 11-7 under in night games at Subiaco since 2012.
– Carlton are 5-12 ATS in interstate night games since 2012.
– The Blues have covered just 2 of their last 8 interstate games overall.
– Carlton are 5-7 ATS as an interstate underdog of more than four goals.
– The Blues are 32-23 under after conceding 85 or fewer.

Betting Data
2017 Line: West Coast 8-11, Carlton 11-8
2017 Over-Under: West Coast 8-11, Carlton 8-11

What To Expect
West Coast look a very good bet this week and would be close to a five-chipper but for Carlton’s general pluckiness. The Eagles are outstanding bets as a big home favourite, covering 18 of 22 since 2012 when favoured by more than five goals at Subiaco. Carlton are pretty poor interstate at night so the Eagles need to be trusted here in a must-win game.

How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 48

Recommended Bet
West Coast -33.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets
Andrew Gaff has hit 130 three times this year and all have been in quality defensive performances so that bodes well for this one at big odds.

Recommended Bet
Andrew Gaff 130+ Fantasy Points ($6.00) 

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 21

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