|Melbourne v St Kilda
Sunday 1:10pm at MCG
|Best: St Kilda +7.5 ($1.91)
Prop: Seb Ross 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.00)
Both the Demons and the Saints are on the outside of the Top 8 looking in and know any hopes of finals football requires a win here.
Melbourne have dropped to 10th on the ladder with a 10-9 record following a big loss to GWS. The Demons have now dropped their last two and won just two of their last six. Melbourne posted 90-plus in 11 of their first 13 games but haven’t surpassed that in the last six weeks. The Demons’ attack ranks sixth while their defence rates ninth.
St Kilda are 11th on the ladder, also with a 10-9 record. The Saints ended a three-game losing streak against West Coast with a big home win. St Kilda have won eight straight games against teams currently not inside the Top 8. The Saints rank 12th in scoring this season while they are marginally better defensively rating 10th.
Stats That Matter
– St Kilda had won 14 straight against Melbourne before the Demons downed the Saints in Round 1 this year.
– The Saints have covered 4 of the last 6 with the Demons.
– Six of the nine clashes since 2012 have gone under.
– The under has hit in 4 of the 5 Saints-Demons games at the MCG.
– Melbourne have covered just 1 of their last 10 at the MCG.
– The Demons are 44-29 under at the MCG since 2012 while the Saints are 9-6 under.
– St Kilda have covered four straight at the MCG.
– Melbourne are 6-15 ATS as a favourite at the MCG while they are 9-21 ATS as a favourite overall since 2012.
– St Kilda have covered 8 of their last 12 as an outsider in Melbourne off a win.
– St Kilda are 25-14 ATS in day matches in Melbourne since 2012.
2017 Line: Melbourne 7-12, St Kilda 8-11
2017 Over-Under: Melbourne 9-10, St Kilda 8-11
What To Expect
Get the cash into the middle because we have a five-chipper here with St Kilda. The Saints should be well and truly favoured in this but the genius bookies are giving us 7.5 points start. The Saints have a dominant record over Melbourne but more importantly, the Demons are horrific bets when favoured, particularly at the MCG. Saints play well in the day and can be bet with total confidence.
How It’s Shaping Up
St Kilda by 27
St Kilda +7.5 ($1.91)
Seb Ross has breached the 110-point AFL fantasy mark nine times this year and has another four scores of 105-plus. He is consistent and will feature heavily in a big Saints win.
Seb Ross 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.00)
The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 21
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