|Geelong v Richmond
Saturday 2:10pm at Simonds Stadium
|Best : Under 160.5 points ($1.88)
Prop: Dustin Martin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
An all Top 4 battle between Geelong and Richmond could be a precursor to a bigger matchup come September.
Geelong sit fourth on the ladder following their 46-point loss to Sydney, currently with a 12-6-1 record. The Cats have lost just three of their last 11 matches but have fallen of late with two defeats in their last three outings. Against Sydney, Geelong conceded 100 points for the first time since Round 8.
Richmond have won four straight and eight of their last 10 and have ascended to third on the ladder with a 13-6 record. The Tigers rank top in defence while they rate 11th in scoring. Richmond have kept opponents to 66 or less in seven of their last 10 outings. The Tigers have posted at least 93 in three of their last four.
Stats That Matter
– Geelong have won 12 straight and 19 of their last 20 against Richmond.
– The under has hit in 4 of the 5 Cats-Tigers clashes since 2012.
– Geelong have covered 11 of their last 16 at Simonds.
– The Cats are 13-10 ATS in Victoria as an outsider since 2012.
– Geelong are 16-25 ATS in Victoria in day games.
– Richmond have covered just 6 of their last 15 day games in Victoria.
– The Tigers have gone under in 8 of their last 10 day games in Victoria.
– Richmond are 48-30 under as a favourite.
– The Tigers have covered 8 of their last 11 as a favourite.
– Richmond are 28-15 under after conceding 70 or fewer points.
2017 Line: Geelong 9-10, Richmond 14-5
2017 Over-Under: Geelong 10-9, Richmond 5-14
What To Expect
The under is without question the best play in this one. The Tigers are a huge under team and in this all-important clash the under should be hitting. The Tigers go under off big defensive performances and day matches don’t impact that. The money will roll in for the under all week.
How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 1
Under 160.5 points ($1.88)
Dustin Martin has hit 110 points in five of his last six matches and is averaging 113.7 points. This is free.
Dustin Martin 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.50)
The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 21
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