AFL Preview: Bombers v Crows

Essendon v Adelaide
Saturday 7:25
pm at Etihad Stadium
Best: Over 200.5 points ($1.88)
Prop: Brendon Goddard 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.60)

The Bombers are back inside the Top 8 but will need to down the competition front-runners Adelaide to remain there.

Form
Essendon have won four of their last five and have moved up to eighth on the ladder with a 10-9 record. The Bombers have the third best attack in the AFL but rank a lowly 13th in defence. The Bombers have won just one of their last five against Top 8 opposition. The Bombers have won four of their last six at Etihad.

Adelaide sit atop the AFL premiership with a 14-4-1 record. The Crows have not lost any of their last six with their worst result a draw against Collingwood. Adelaide have an incredible 10 wins of 40-plus this season. The Crows have posted 100-plus in four of their last five and have the clear top attack in the AFL this season.

Stats That Matter

– Adelaide have won the last three and nine of the last 12 against Essendon.
– Since 2012, all six Crows-Bombers games have gone over the total.
– Essendon are 23-32 ATS at Etihad but are 16-12 ATS at the ground as an outsider with an 18-10 under record.
– The Bombers are 27-12 ATS as an underdog of more than two goals in Melbourne since 2012 with a 23-16 under record.
– Adelaide are 41-21 over interstate since 2012.
– The Crows are 15-8 ATS with a 17-6 over record as an interstate favourite of more than two goals.
– Adelaide are 18-8 ATS 1ith a 15-11 over record after scoring 130.
– The over has hit in 7 of the last 8 Essendon games after being kept to 90 or fewer.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Essendon 10-9, Adelaide 13-6
2017 Over-Under: Essendon 10-9, Adelaide 9-10

What To Expect
Could definitely come into the Essendon plus as well but the best play is without question the over. All six clashes between the Bombers and Crows since 2012 have gone over the total while Adelaide are 41-21 over interstate since 2012. The Bombers have gone over in seven of their last eight after being held to 90 or fewer.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 7

Recommended Bet
Over 200.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets
Brendon Goddard has scored 100 or more in four of his last six and is averaging 99.5 this year.  Scored 106 when the Bombers met the Crows earlier in the season.

Recommended Bet
Brendon Goddard 100+ Fantasy Points ($1.60) 

The Wolf’s AFL Tips: Round 21

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