|St Kilda v Carlton
Fri 7:50pm at Etihad Stadium
|Best Bet: St. Kilda 1-39 ($2.05)
Value Bet: Patrick Cripps 120+ Fantasy Points ($3.75)
Player Prop: Seb Ross 30+ Disposals ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Charlie Curnow ($8.00)
Name two better clubs to be contesting Friday night footy…..I’ll wait. Seriously, what a stinker of a fixture! It’s at battle of 15th v 18th at Etihad on Friday night, with the Saints taking on the Blues, who are virtually assured of their fourth Wooden Spoon in less than 20 years. It’s hard to imagine even Saints or Blues fans getting excited about watching this match, though there is still money to be made for punters! They’ll no doubt be buoyed by the improved showings of St. Kilda over the past month, which has coincided with Carlton’s season taking even more (hard to fathom!) of a nose dive. Get your bets on early Friday evening punters, then sit back and enjoy the television brilliance of Better Homes and Gardens!
St. Kilda (LLWWL) – After losing 7 games in a row, the Saints have had a renaissance of sorts; winning two in a row before being reasonably competitive against the Power last round. The midfield have lifted around the ball, and forwards like Tim Membrey and Jade Gresham have hit purple patches of form (and can finally kick straighter). There is a big gulf in class between them and the top sides, but at least they are showing a bit of grunt now.
Carlton (LLLLL) – Think your side is growing, Brendan Bolton? Think that youth can excuse all of your results? Think again! In the past month, the Baby Blues have lost by over 50 points to two sides (Fremantle and Brisbane) who have a similar, if not lower, age profile to them- and more concerning has been the utter lack of heart or competitiveness in three quarters of the team during that time. Against the Lion cubs last round (who are the youngest club in the competition) they gave up 147 marks (including 24 inside 50) and took just 65 themselves; and were -145 on disposals, -21 on contested possessions and managed just 7 goals from 51 forward 50 entries. An appalling performance.
Stats That Matter
– St. Kilda has won the last 3 clashes
– Patrick Cripps averages 30 disposals and 123 Fantasy Points per game against the Saints
– The Saints have won just 4 first halves this season
– Carlton are 2-7 ATS in their past 9 games at Etihad
– Both sides are 6-3 on the Over/Under in their past 9 games
– Jack Billings had 30 disposals, 5 goals and 151 Fantasy Points in their last meeting
– Kade Simpson has had 30+ disposals in 4 of his past 5 matches
2018 Line: St. Kilda- 6-9; Carlton- 8-7
2018 Over-Under: St. Kilda- 6-9; Carlton- 8-7
What To Expect
Wolfie isn’t expecting much from this game! In all seriousness though, it is very hard to see Carlton winning this game after the performance they pulled out last week. They don’t fare well at Etihad, they have more injury concerns and the Saints have started to lift their form. Expecting a Saints win, but wouldn’t imagine their forward line is potent enough to take it past the 1-39 margin.
How It’s Shaping Up
St. Kilda by 23
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