AFL Preview Round 17: Magpies v Eagles

Sunday AFL action kicks off with a huge match-up between the 2nd-place Pies and the 3rd-place Eagles at the MCG. Collingwood have now won 7 in a row, and have been playing some exciting footy- with players like Stephenson, de Goey, Cox, Howe and Hoskin-Elliott playing full of confidence and absolutely turning it on- leading to some aesthetically pleasing footy that has seen the Pies rocket up the ladder. The Eagles however, get their 3 big forwards back and will be keen to reverse their mini form-slump and consolidate their spot in the Top 4.

Form

Collingwood (WWWWW) – They’ve taken some big scalps, and incredibly, sit 2nd on the ladder after being $5.50 in the preseason to make the Top 4, drifting out to as far as $21! Brodie Grundy has been a huge influence around the ground, and led the midfield remarkably well- but it has been the forward line that has been the impressive part of the 7 consecutive wins. First year player and Rising Star favourite, Jaidyn Stephenson has often played as the deep forward to great effect; and they have a number of different players that can roll forward- making them very hard to match-up on.  

West Coast (WLLLW) – The loss of Kennedy and Darling coincided with three losses in a row, but they did manage to hold on for a nail-biting win over the Giants last round, thanks to another best-on-ground performance by Andrew Gaff, who had 41 disposals, 6 clearances and 2 goals. His gut-busting outside run has been complimented by a much more improved inside game and an ability to hit the scoreboard- he will certainly enjoy sending the ball inside 50 to his two big men again. 

Stats That Matter
– The Eagles haven’t beaten the Pies at the MCG since 1995
– Both sides are averaging over 90 points per game this season
– Pendlebury and Adams both average at least 30 disposals and 115 Fantasy Points per game against West Coast
– Collingwood are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
– Josh Kennedy has kicked 14 goals in his last 4 matches against the Pies
– The Pies have won 4 consecutive games at the ‘G
– Jordan De Goey kicked 4 goals and had 20 touches in their last meeting

Betting Data

2018 Line: Collingwood- 9-6; West Coast- 9-6

2018 Over-Under: Collingwood- 7-8; West Coast- 6-9

What To Expect

Ins: Kennedy, Darling, Le Cras, Sheed, Waterman. Watch out Pies! The fact this game is at the MCG is a huge factor, given the Eagles have been very poor there over the last few years (they did win earlier in the year, but it was only a small win over the Blues) and Wolfie, though wary of an upset, is still going to side with the Pies at home. Lynden Dunn’s ACL injury came at a very poor time, with the underrated defender a crucial cog in the Collingwood backline, and they will sorely miss him facing Darling and Kennedy- but home ground advantage still sways this game the way of Collingwood- who are absolutely flying!

How It’s Shaping Up
Collingwood by 11

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: HT/FT Double- Collingwood/Collingwood ($1.90)
Value Bet: Gaff 30+ Disposals/de Goey 3+ Goals ($3.75)
Player Prop: Scott Pendlebury 30+ Disposals ($2.00)

First Goalscorer: Jordan de Goey

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