AFL Preview Round 17: Hawks v Lions

It’s the last game in Launceston for the year, and the Hawks will be looking to hold onto their spot in the 8 at their York Park fortress when they take on a resurgent Lions side on Saturday afternoon. Alistair Clarkson and his men will be smarting from the 56-point pasting they copped from a Brisbane side led by Clarkson’s former right-hand man in Chris Fagan in Round 9, and the motivation will be high to turn the tables. With the ladder so tight at the moment, the Hawks simply must win, and win well, in these games in order to return to the finals and give themselves a shot of staying in the Premiership window.

Form

Hawthorn (WWWLW) – The past few weeks have seen mixed fortunes for the Hawks, but they finally turned on a performance we knew they were capable of when they dismantled the Dogs in the second half to run out 63 point winners. Despite being solid in defence and industrious through the midfield, their forward line has looked somewhat disjointed all year (odd considering they are the oldest and most experienced in the comp) but it finally all came together against the Dogs. Breust kicked 6, both Gunston and Roughy kicked 4 while Isaac Smith continued his great year with another couple of majors. They were expected to win, but the way they won was far more important to their finals credentials.

Brisbane (LLLWW) – The Lions have now won two on the trot, and face the opposition they beat earlier in the year to the tune of 56 points- who’d have thought! Even without their defensive marshall, Harris Andrews, they have looked full of run and brave enough to play an attacking and open brand of footy. Dayne Beams, still in the midst of what is an extraordinarily difficult time for him personally, has been a phenomenal leader without the © next to his name- and the goal-kicking mid has put together a remarkable patch of form in his last 6 matches. He has averaged 31 disposals, 7 clearances, 6 marks and 112 Fantasy Points per game, while kicking 8 goals. Colossal effort in trying times both on and off the field.

Stats That Matter
– Brisbane won their Round 9 meeting by 56 points
– The Hawks have lost just once in their last 20 games in Launceston
– Tom Mitchell averages 34 disposals and 120 Fantasy Points per game against Brisbane
– The Lions have won just two 1st quarters this season (-170 points)
– Dayne Zorko has averaged 28 disposals, 1 goal, 11 tackles and 122 Fantasy Points per game in his last 3 matches against Hawthorn
– Hawthorn are +190 points in third quarters in 2018
– Brisbane are 2-7 on the Over/Under in their past 9 games

Betting Data

2018 Line: Hawthorn- 9-6; Brisbane- 8-7

2018 Over-Under: Hawthorn- 6-9; Brisbane- 8-7

What To Expect

A win for the Lions would be 3 in a row for the first time in 5 years, but the Wolf is expecting the Hawks to exact revenge in this game. They have proved almost impossible to beat in Launie over the past few years (though truth be told they usually play weaker sides there) and they have so much to play for. Tom Mitchell ran riot in their last meeting, and after being well held last week, Wolfie is expecting him to have another dose of leather poisoning while he leads his side to the win.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 38

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Hawthorn -27.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: Tom Mitchell 40+ Disposals ($3.50)
Player Prop: Stefan Martin 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)

First Goalscorer: Jack Gunston

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