AFL Preview Round 17: Giants v Tigers

It’s a replay of the 2017 Prelim Final on Saturday night, when the Tigers travel up to Sydney to take on the Giants at Spotless Stadium. The Giants are currently sitting in 10th, half a win outside the 8, and every match from here on in is vital if they want to return to September. They face a huge task against last year’s Premiers, who are in far better form than this time last year- though truth be told the 3 games they have lost this year have all been interstate. Will the Giants keep their Finals hopes alive or will the Tigers get their first win away from Victoria this year?

Form

GWS (WWWWL) – In a match that had huge implications for the Giants finals chances, they suffered a heartbreaking loss to an Eagles side missing Kennedy, Darling and LeCras in Perth last week. Despite missing their own two key forwards, versatile big man Adam Tomlinson stood up with 24 disposals, 7 marks and 3 goals, while the Ferrari purred along despite Josh Kelly being reasonably well held by Mark Hutchings. Getting Lids and Toby Greene back will be a huge boost, but it does look like the rest of the side has got a bit of confidence back regardless.

Richmond (WLWWW) – Hard to imagine it was just over a year ago when the Tigers had a complete brain fade and allowed the Giants to go the length of the field in the dying seconds to win their last meeting at Spotless a week after they let David Mundy secure a win after the siren at the ‘G! They are a completely different team, full of role players with good footy IQ- the exact opposite they used to be! They have comfortable accounted for the Cats, Swans and Crows over the last 3 rounds- all clubs that were expected to contend for the Premiership. Flags aren’t won in July, but they sure do look impressive. 

Stats That Matter
– Richmond have won 7 of their 9 meetings
– The Giants are 2-5 ATS at Home this season
– Dusty Martin averages 27 disposals and 114 Fantasy Points per game against the Giants
– The Tigers love the last quarter; they have won 12 of 15 and have +202 more points than their opponents
– Kane Lambert has been the leading disposal winner for the Tigers for 4 consecutive games
– GWS are averaging 102 points per game in their last 5 matches
– Josh Kelly is averaging 125 Fantasy Points per game over the past month

Betting Data

2018 Line: GWS- 9-6; Richmond- 9-6

2018 Over-Under: GWS- 3-12; Richmond- 8-7

What To Expect

The Wolf is looking forward to this game, and is expecting a cracking contest. Obviously the two key forwards for the Giants are out, but they have plenty of goal-kicking midfielders who can pick up the slack. The Giants just squeaked in under the line for Wolf followers last week, and they will be fired up to perform in front of their 1223 home fans at Spotless. You can’t tip against Richmond, but you can tip an opposing side to keep it tight when the Tiges are interstate!

How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 5

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: GWS +13.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: HT/FT Double- GWS/Richmond ($6.00)
Player Prop: Callan Ward 30+ Disposals ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Stephen Coniglio

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