|Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Sat 4:35pm at MCG
|Best Bet: Melbourne 4th Quarter Line -11.5 ($1.87)
Value Bet: Melbourne 106-120 Total Points ($3.80)
Player Prop: Clayton Oliver 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Jesse Hogan
The Demons will be looking to consolidate their position in the Top 8 when they take on the Bulldogs at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. Melbourne made the trip up to Darwin last round and despite their horrendous accuracy (or lack thereof) they managed to get their season back on track with a 52 point win over the Dockers. They will come up against an injury depleted Dogs side, and after their Round 11 meeting finished 110-51 in their favour, they will be full of confidence they can repeat the dose and continue to push their percentage up.
Melbourne (WLLLW) – The Demons got themselves out of their mini-slump (as expected) in tough conditions in Darwin last week against the Dockers. They absolutely obliterated them in every facet of the game, bar goalkicking- with the Dees finishing +103 in disposals, +48 in contested possessions and a mind boggling 78-28 in Inside 50s. Somehow Freo were just 21 points behind at half-time but thankfully the Demons managed to pull it together somewhat, and they really should have won by triple figures. Better than losing to St. Kilda, though.
Western Bulldogs (LLLWL) – The Dogs had a mini midseason renaissance of sorts before the Hawks completely dismantled their defence and won to the tune of 63 points. Once again they were strong early before fading during the second half, and that was illustrated none better than Jason Johannisen- who had 25 possessions in the first half, but just 7 in the second. Luke Beveridge will be pleased their strongest runner, Jack Macrae, is likely to return to give them a bit of help in that area.
Stats That Matter
– The Dees won their Round 11 meeting by 49 points
– Melbourne are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matches
– Jesse Hogan and Tom McDonald combined for 43 disposals, 9 goals and 264 Fantasy Points earlier this year against the Dogs
– The Dogs have won 6 consecutive matches at the MCG
– Lachie Hunter has averaged 30 disposals per game in his last 4 against Melbourne
– The Bulldogs have won just two 4th Quarters this season (-132 points) while the Dees thrive in the last, winning 11 of 15 and finishing +94 points
– Clayton Oliver is averaging 7 tackles and 29 disposals per game in 2018
2018 Line: Melbourne- 9-6; Western Bulldogs- 5-10
2018 Over-Under: Melbourne- 8-7; Western Bulldogs- 6-9
What To Expect
Melbourne on the 4th quarter line has been very kind to the Wolf over the past couple of months, and he won’t be jumping off here, with them up against the worst 4th quarter side in the competition. The Bulldogs have really struggled in the contested and clearance battles this year, and given that Melbourne’s bread and butter, you can look to the likes of Oliver, Viney and Brayshaw to put up some good player prop numbers in a strong Melbourne win.
How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 42
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