AFL Preview Round 17: Crows v Cats

Thursday night footy heads to the Adelaide Oval, with the Crows looking to keep their very slim finals hopes alive when they take on the Cats, who themselves are hanging grimly onto their spot in the Top 8. The Crows have won just 2 of their past 8, handicapped by soft-tissue injuries and whatever the hell happened on their preseason bootcamp; and given they are two wins and a significant chunk of percentage outside the 8, it will take a huge effort from here to qualify for Finals. The Cats have not exactly been in outstanding form either, but led by a stingy, no-name defence and an experienced midfield, they can never be written off and they need to keep winning to ensure not only a Top 8 spot, but give themselves a shot at the double chance.

Form

Adelaide (LLLWL) – Any good work they had done in their 4th quarter against the Eagles a fortnight ago was completely un-done with their uncompetitive effort against the Tigers at the ‘G last round. The bottom 10 players for the Crows combined for 104 disposals and 24 tackles, compared to 142 disposals and 31 tackles for the Tigers bottom 10- and lack of effort, composure and class from the bottom half is exactly where they lost it. 2 touches, negative metres gained and 4 free kicks against for Curtly Hampton in 83% TOG is inexcusable and indicative of the hole Adelaide find themselves in. They aren’t trying hard enough for long enough.

Geelong (WWLLW) – How on earth they managed to kick 8.23 from 59 Inside 50’s at the SCG in near-perfect conditions last round is beyond Wolfie but either way the Cats managed to stay in the Top 8 with a crucial win over the Swans. Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan and mature-aged draftee Tim Kelly were huge when it counted through the midfield, with Kelly’s 2 goals massive in the context of the game situation. They absolutely smashed the Swans through the guts and if they can clean up their forward entries they will remain a force in the competition. Hard to win Flags from 7th place, though.

Stats That Matter
– Adelaide have won the last 2 meetings by an average of 41 points
– Geelong are the #1 ranked defense in the League, conceding just 69 points per game on average
– Both Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield average 30 disposals and 118+ Fantasy Points per game against Adelaide
– Adelaide have not covered the spread in 5 consecutive matches
– Matt Crouch has had 30+ disposals in 8 of his 10 full games this season
– Geelong are 2-8 on the Over/Under in their past 10 matches
– Rory Sloane averages 107 Fantasy Points per game against the Cats

Betting Data

2018 Line: Adelaide- 5-10; Geelong- 4-11

2018 Over-Under: Adelaide- 6-9; Geelong- 8-7

What To Expect

The Wolf couldn’t believe the Crows opened favourites, but the market has now corrected itself, with Geelong installed as the favourites- reflective of their differing fortunes this season. The fact this game is in Adelaide doesn’t sway Wolfie one bit, given Geelong have a strong recent record in ‘Rads.’ Anything $1.80 or over looks a good H2H price for the Cats, who dominated the Swans last week and if they can kick straighter on Thursday night- look out! Joel Selwood is going to lead his boys to the win here.

How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 11

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Geelong WIN ($1.87)
Value Bet: Joel Selwood 120+ Fantasy Points ($3.50)
Player Prop: Rory Sloane 25+ Disposals ($1.70)

First Goalscorer: Patrick Dangerfield ($13.00)

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