AFL Preview Round 14: Hawks v Suns

Pack your gloves Hawks fans, because it’s going to be a chilly one when Hawthorn take on Gold Coast in Launceston on Saturday afternoon. The Suns have been in the headlines a lot of late, for all the wrong reasons, and desperately just need to put in a competitive performance (and score a bloody goal in the fourth quarter) to keep the doubters at bay- and keep Tom Lynch, while we’re at it. Hawthorn, on the other hand, completely dismantled the 2017 runners-up in a commanding performance last round and will come into this clash full of confidence at a venue they very, very, very rarely lose at.

Form

Hawthorn (LLLWW) – Hawthorn have been solid, if unspectacular, of late and it almost feels like we are waiting for an AHA! moment where everything will click and they will stamp themselves as a genuine top 8 side. At the moment the back half is very solid, and also provides great rebound (led by soon-to-be All Australian James Sicily) while the midfield is both workmanlike and balanced. It’s the forward line, somewhat strangely, that is failing to gel and make the most of the opportunities presented. The cattle is there, they just need to figure out the optimal structure. There were patches against the Crows last round (namely the 3rd quarter where they piled on 7 goals) where they fired, but there were a lot of inside 50s that they didn’t take full advantage of.

Gold Coast (LLLLL) – What else is there to say about the Gold Coast?! We could talk about the fact they played some pretty good footy in the first half, playing keepings off and giving Tom Lynch some quality ball. Really though, it’s hard to highlight anything else other than the fact that they couldn’t manage a single point in an entire half of footy. Seriously, how do you not even accidentally score a point? Rushed behind even?! It’s now been 4 games since they scored a goal in a fourth quarter, and that is an incredibly damning statistic on both the playing group and the coaches box. They haven’t won since Round 2, when they beat current wooden spooners, the Blues. 

Stats That Matter
– The Suns have won just one 4th quarter this season, with a percentage of 34%
– Tom Mitchell averages 34 disposals and 136 Fantasy Points per game against Gold Coast
– Gold Coast have won the past 2 meetings
– Hawthorn are 1-4 ATS in their last 5
– Liam Shiels averages 106 Fantasy Points per game against the Suns
– The Suns have had the leading disposal winner on the ground just twice this season
– The Hawks are 24-1-1 in their last 26 games in Launceston
– Unders has saluted in 10 of the Suns’ 12 matches

Betting Data

2018 Line: Hawthorn- 7-5; Gold Coast- 6-6

2018 Over-Under: Hawthorn- 3-9; Gold Coast- 2-10

What To Expect

The Wolf expects nothing less than a comfortable Hawks victory, but is finding this a very difficult game to bet into. Confidence on quarter betting is not high, given the breeze in Launie can often be a 3-4 goal swing, and the line, at -48.5 is (justifiably) high. Expecting the stingy Hawthorn defence to hold Gold Coast at bay and then going hard at Player Props bets for Hawthorn- players find it quite easy to rack up the Fantasy points/disposals and the like against the Suns.

How It’s Shaping Up
Hawthorn by 42

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Gold Coast 0-60 Points ($1.72)
Value Bet: Jaeger O’Meara 30+ Disposals ($3.75)
Player Prop: Tom Mitchell 130+ Fantasy Points ($2.10)

First Goalscorer: Jarman Impey

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