AFL Preview Round 13: Suns v Saints

In the second of the double-header fizzer games on Saturday we see the Suns play at Metricon for just the second time this year when they host a Saints side who haven’t tasted victory since the opening round of the season. These sides have been so bad over the past fortnight they have lost by a combined 277 points across 4 games. In fact, the Suns have been so poor they have broken records- in their last 3 fourth quarters they have recorded the lowest total since Fitzroy in 1907 (bear in mind back then, teams often won scoring less than 30 points- so this stat is really doing an injustice to Fitzroy). Just how on earth Stewart Dew can turn that horrid stat around remains to be seen, although Alan Richardson is the coach under far more pressure. Hard to see how he keeps his job if he loses this as well. Saints simply MUST win. If only for their poor fans.

Form

Gold Coast (LLLLL) – It seems like years ago when we were impressed by a young Suns side full of enthusiasm and pressure in the opening rounds. Oh how the tides have turned! Somewhat astonishingly, their average losing margin over the past month has been an abominable 75 points, with each loss getting progressively worse. Young or not, there has been some damning vision over the past few games of Gold Coast players being 50 metres away from their direct opponents, with no semblance of pressure. The loss to GWS was like watching an U/16’s side (or witches hats, whatever you prefer) provide opposition bodies for a training run, and Stewy Dew must be absolutely pulling his hair out- they’ve lost 19 straight quarters!

St. Kilda (LLLLL) – As if being without a victory since Round 1 wasn’t bad enough, the poor Saints fans then had to sit and watch their boys go into the first break 48 points behind. You gotta feel sorry for members and fans that paid to support their team at home! After that diabolical first quarter though, the Saints only lost the last 3 quarters by 23 points. Problem is, it’s the same story every week! Effort and pressure simply cannot be conditional at this level, no matter what your skill and because the Saints have very little class or skill they need to provide more pressure than most to stay competitive. When they bring that, they can challenge sides- especially one in as big as a rut as the Suns are. 

Stats That Matter
– Their past 5 meetings have not seen a margin lower than 28 points
– Gold Coast have lost their last 2 games by a combined 193 points
– Seb Ross is averaging 31 disposals per game over the past 3 weeks
– The Suns have won just one 4th quarter this season for a percentage of 38%. They haven’t kicked more than 2 goals in the last term since Round 2
– Overs is 5-1 in St. Kilda’s last 6 games
– The Suns are averaging just 45 points per game in their past 4 matches
– St. Kilda are 1-4 ATS away from home this season

Betting Data

2018 Line: Gold Coast- 5-6; St. Kilda- 4-8
2018 Over-Under: Gold Coast- 2-9; St. Kilda- 5-7

What To Expect

Wolfie, like many footy pundits, isn’t particularly looking forward to this match. St. Kilda’s list, particularly through the midfield, definitely looks ahead of where the Suns sit at the moment-  but the effort (or lack thereof) they showed in the 1st quarter against the Swans last week was appalling. They wouldn’t have even beaten a VFL Reserves side! They simply have to turn that around, surely. They are better than that, as their next 3 quarters showed. While the value might lie with the margin markets, the performances of both these sides over the past fortnight means you cannot trust them whatsoever. Taking the win price of the Saints, but not with a great deal of confidence.

How It’s Shaping Up
St. Kilda by 23

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: St. Kilda WIN ($1.62)
Value Bet: Tom Lynch 3+ Goals/Jack Steven 30+ Disposals
Player Prop: Seb Ross 30+ Disposals

First Goalscorer: Tom Lynch

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