AFL Preview Round 13: Power v Bulldogs

Thursday night footy is back, and we are heading to the Adelaide Oval to see the Power taking on the Bulldogs. Port, precariously placed in eighth (albeit with a game in hand), will be keen to consolidate their spot (and give their percentage a boost) against a Dogs side that has suffered heavy losses to opponents in the Top 8 this season. Their midfield of Wingard, Wines, Powell-Pepper, Rockliff and Boak completely steamrolled the Tigers midfield- and it is hard to see how the Bulldogs can handle these guys on the inside. Jack Macrae and Lachie Hunter have been in reasonable form, but Port Adelaide are the best clearance side in the competition- and with their outside runners and forward line finally starting to gel and hit some form, the Doggies could be in for another tough night in Adelaide.

Form

Port Adelaide (LWWLW) – The rollercoaster year for Port Adelaide supporters continues, after their stirring performance against the defending Premiers saw them secure their 4th win at home this season from 5 games. Chad Wingard, who has been severely down on his best form so far this year, responded to stinging criticism with an electric 31 disposal display. He was ably supported by Powell-Pepper and Wines- who combined for 57 disposals, 14 clearances, 18 tackles and 15 inside 50’s in a monster performance by the Bash Brothers. That dominance on the inside was led by a vintage Paddy Ryder display, who had a number of deft touches that delivered the ball on a platter.

Western Bulldogs (WWLLL) – The Dogs may have a record of 4-7, which is poor, but when you break it down even further, 3 of those victories came against sides below them on the ladder and the remaining one came against Essendon- who have won just one more game. When they have come up against 3 class sides in Adelaide, Collingwood and Melbourne over the past 3 weeks, they have lost by an average of 40 points. That really does tell you everything you need to know about the Dogs. They simply do not have enough class or depth to compete with the top sides; particularly given the pressure they were so famed for in their Premiership year is a shadow of its former self.

Stats That Matter
– The Bulldogs haven’t covered the spread for 5 consecutive matches
– Port have won 8 of their last 10 home games
– Jack Macrae averages 29 disposals and 106 Fantasy Points per game against Port
– The Dogs have lost all of their away fixtures this season by 35+ points
– The Power have a percentage of 173% in 3rd quarters, while the Bulldogs’ is just 56%
– Both sides have had just one match go Overs in their last 7 games
– Steven Motlop averages 22 disposals, 106.5 Fantasy Points and 2 goals per game against the Dogs (up from a career average of 18 – 73 – 1.3)

Betting Data

2018 Line: Port Adelaide- 5-6; Western Bulldogs- 3-8
2018 Over-Under: Port Adelaide- 3-8; Western Bulldogs- 3-8

What To Expect

Port are a far stronger side at home, and with the lure of Thursday Night Lights they should be too good for a Doggies side that look to have lost their killer instinct. Yes, the Power have been extremely up-and-down this season; but this situation should spark them into some electric footy and ride on the back of a wave of hometown support. Wolfie loves isolating the strong periods for sides in games where there is a glaring opposition weakness and is very keen on the Power boys to make their Alberton faithful proud in the second half with a commanding display despite some expected wet weather. 

How It’s Shaping Up
Port Adelaide by 32

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Port Adelaide Second Half Line -19.5 ($1.87)
Value Bet: Watts 3+ Goals/Hunter 30+ Disposals ($6.75)
Player Prop: Ollie Wines 30+ Disposals ($2.50)

First Goalscorer: Jack Watts ($13.00)

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