AFL Preview Round 13: Blues v Dockers

The Saturday double-header fizzer (or whatever the opposite of a blockbuster is) kicks off with the 18th-placed Blues taking on the 13th-placed Dockers at Etihad. Freo snatched a massive upset against Adelaide without Fyfe and Sandilands in front of a raucous home crowd, but they will find the going tougher over in Melbourne against a Blues side who were in desperate need of a break after a few tired performances against some older bodies. It won’t but be the most pleasing match on the eye, we may very well find ourselves in for a very tight clash.

Form

Carlton (LWLLL) – Thankfully for Blues fans, they managed to scrape through the bye round without losing- who’d have thought! After their breakthrough win, they’ve fallen back into old ways over the past 3 weeks, with an average losing margin of 55 points. It does need to be said they very well could have won against Geelong- but the fact remains this is a side that can never be consistently competitive enough through games regardless of age. Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow and Kade Simpson continue to carry the side on their backs, and until the rest of the youngsters learn about sustained effort and pressure, nothing will change.

Fremantle (WLLLW) – Every man and his dog wrote off the Dockers without Fyfe and Sandilands- even though they were at home, they started 27 point outsiders. Well, what a fantastic way to prove all their doubters wrong! 2017 draftees Andrew Brayshaw (20 disposals) and Adam Cerra (30 disposals, 8 inside 50’s) demonstrated why there is so much hype surrounding their fledgling careers, while the #41 pick from 2016, Brennan Cox, arrived on the big stage, clunking 7 marks in his 4 goal display. No one stood head and shoulders above the rest, but everyone played their role- something that has been sorely missing in away games when they carry far too many passengers.

Stats That Matter
– Freo have won 4 of their last 5 games against Carlton in Melbourne
– Connor Blakely averages 134 Fantasy Points per game against the Blues
– The Dockers have lost all 6 of their away games this season
– Overs is 4-1 in the past four matches for the Blues
– Lachie Neale is averaging 34 disposals per game in his last 3 against Carlton
– Carlton have lost 6 of their last 8 matches at Etihad

Betting Data

2018 Line: Carlton- 6-5; Fremantle- 7-5
2018 Over-Under: Carlton- 6-5; Fremantle- 3-9

What To Expect

One of the toughest games to pick for the year, this one. Given how wildly these sides can fluctuate during games (and between games- who knows if Freo can perform like they did last week!) the Wire to Wire markets seems a safer play than the H2H or Margin markets. Carlton will quite likely storm out of the gates but expecting a possessed Fyfe to drag Freo back into the contest.

How It’s Shaping Up
Fremantle by 8

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Wire to Wire- ANY OTHER RESULT ($2.00)
Value Bet: Nat Fyfe 130+ Fantasy Points ($5.25)
Player Prop: E. Curnow 8+ Tackles/Simpson 25+ Disposals ($2.62)

First Goalscorer: Matthew Wright

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