|Brisbane v Essendon
Sun 1:10pm at The Gabba
|Best Bet: Essendon WIN ($1.70)
Value Bet: Dayne Beams 120+ Fantasy Points ($3.70)
Player Prop: Michael Hurley 30+ Disposals ($2.75)
First Goalscorer: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
It’s not exactly a classic but a shoot-out is expected on Sunday afternoon when the Lions take on the Bombers at the Gabba. Despite being highly fancied to improve on their 7th-placed finish last year, Essendon sit well out of finals contention; being 2 games and a substantial amount of percentage behind; and with a couple of tough games after the bye this is a MUST win game. In their favour is the fact Brisbane have managed just one win this season, and with some huge injury outs, the home side will have to be at their youthful, exuberant best to get the chocolates in this one.
Brisbane (LLWLL) – After their first win for the season against Hawthorn 3 weeks ago, we thought the Lions had flicked the switch and were primed to secure more wins in 2018. Unfortunately for them, they were back to their old ways last round against the Roos. They were down by 55 points at half-time, and while they did rally somewhat in the second half, they will never be able to win games when they start so poorly (the first quarter was 37-4) given their lack of age and experience.
Essendon (LLWWL) – After wins over Finals contenders Geelong and GWS, the Bombers undid all their good work last week; losing by a whopping 71 points in one of the regular season’s biggest games- Dreamtime at the ‘G. They just couldn’t find a way to breakdown Richmond’s defensive structures and had no answer for their relentless pressure- there always looked to be double the amount of yellow jerseys around the ball. Assessing Essendon’s form line and chances in coming matches is a near impossible task.
Stats That Matter
– Essendon have won their last 3 meetings at the ‘Gabba
– The Lions have still not won a 1st Quarter this year and have a percentage of 48%
– Devon Smith is averaging 8.5 tackles per game in 2018
– 3 of the last 6 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less
– Dayne Beams is averaging 114 Fantasy Points per game in his last 5 matches
– Brisbane are 5-1 ATS in their past 6 matches
– 4 of the last 5 Brisbane games have gone Overs
2018 Line: Brisbane- 6-5; Essendon- 4-7
2018 Over-Under: Brisbane- 5-6; Essendon- 3-8
What To Expect
The Wolf found this the hardest game of the round to predict, with many pundits predicting a Brisbane win despite their status of outsiders. Wolf is expecting it to be a very high scoring contest, with both defences very leaky this season, but with the total set at 188.5 (Wolfie thinks that is absolutely bang on) he is instead looking to an Essendon win after the Lions lost two key players (Charlie Cameron and Mitch Robinson) to injury. Would prefer to sit this one out, but think $1.70 about Essendon against a team that has won just 1 game is value enough.
How It’s Shaping Up
Essendon by 12
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